Red Sox vs Angels - July 5th Simulation Results

Orioles vs Angels - May 3rd Simulation Results

Angels vs Mariners - April 26th Simulation Results

Rangers vs Angels - April 22nd Simulation Results

Tigers vs Angels - April 19th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAA 3-2
2. LAA 4-3
3. LAA 5-4
4. LAA 2-1
5. DET 3-2
6. DET 4-3
7. LAA 4-2
8. LAA 3-1
9. DET 4-2
10. LAA 6-5
11. DET 2-1
12. DET 5-4
13. LAA 5-3
14. DET 5-3
15. LAA 5-2
16. DET 3-1
17. DET 5-2
18. LAA 4-1
19. DET 4-1
20. DET 6-5

Angels vs Twins - April 17th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. MIN 3-2
2. MIN 4-3
3. MIN 2-1
4. LAA 3-2
5. LAA 4-3
6. LAA 2-1
7. MIN 5-4
8. LAA 4-2
9. LAA 3-1
10. MIN 4-2
11. LAA 5-3
12. MIN 3-1
13. LAA 5-4
14. LAA 5-2
15. LAA 4-1
16. MIN 6-5
17. MIN 5-3
18. MIN 4-1
19. LAA 6-3
20. LAA 2-0

Notes about simulator:
It uses Zips projections as data inputs and then plays actual baseball games taking into account pretty much anything you can think of including, defense, base running, handedness advantages, park factors, pitchers tiring, leverage index for bullpen usage.  The lineups come from MLBDepthCharts and since the simulations are done before the actual lineups are published there may be some slight differences between the lineup the simulation uses and the actual one.  Each game is simulated 100k times and the average box scores are listed above.

Astros vs Angels - April 12th Simulation Results

Note: I will be in attendance at this game!!!

Athletics vs Angels - April 11th Simulation Results

Simulation Results (Screenshot)

Athletics vs Angels - April 10th Simulation Results

Box score screenshot.

Athletics vs Angels - April 9th Simulation Results

Here is a screenshot of the results of today's simulation of the Athletics vs Angels game.  Please keep in mind that the simulation was ran before the lineups were announced.  The lineups should be close but not an exact match of the actual ones.  This game was simulated 100K times.

Angels vs Rangers - April 5th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 5th game between the Angels and the Rangers.

Angels (1-2) vs Rangers (2-1)
Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland

Record: 1-2 (0.333)
RS: 11
RA: 11
Pythag Win%: 0.500
Pythag Pace: 81- 81
Pythag Record: 1.5 - 1.5
Record As Favorites: 0-1
Record As Underdogs:  1-1

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy is  51.73%
Angels on average score 5.72 runs
Rangers on average score 5.23  runs
Total Runs scored on average: 10.95

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jason Vargas - 5.4ip, 3.3so, 1.8bb, 6.7hits, 1.07hrs, 88pitches,  5.554fip
Derek Holland - 5.4ip, 5.1so, 1.9bb, 6.3hits, 1.15hrs, 90pitches,  5.097fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy:  47.28%
Over/Under: 10.0 -110o +100u
Notes: This looks like a high scoring game.

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Rangers 5-4
2. Rangers 4-3
3. Rangers 6-5
4. Rangers 3-2
5. Angels 5-4
6. Angels 4-3
7. Rangers 7-6
8. Angels 6-5
9.  Angels 5-3
10. Rangers 5-3
11. Angels 6-4
12. Angels 3-2
13. Rangers 6-4
14. Rangers 4-2
15. Angels 4-2
16. Angels 6-3
17. Angels 7-6
18. Rangers 8-7
19. Angels 7-5
20. Rangers 6-3
.
.
100. Angels 11-2

Angels vs Reds - April 4th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 4th game between the Angels and the Reds.

Angels vs Reds
Joe Blanton vs Bronson Arroyo

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 50.56%
Angels on average score 4.40 runs
Reds on average score 4.16 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 8.56

Starting Pitching Lines:
Joe Blanton - 6.0ip, 5.7so, 1.5bb, 6.1hits, 1.1hrs, 94pitches, 4.410fip
Bronson Arroyo - 6.0ip, 4.3so, 1.2bb, 6.8hits, 1.1hrs, 92pitches, 4.691fip

Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce

Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.1 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Chris Heisey (1.1 times)

Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.366 times)
Reds hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.606 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 48.31%
Over/Under: 8.5 o105, u-125

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 4-3
2. Reds 3-2
3. Reds 5-4
4. Angels 3-2
5. Angels 4-3
6. Reds 2-1
7. Angels 4-2
8. Angels 5-4
9. Reds 6-5
10. Reds 4-2
11. Angels 5-3
12. Reds 5-3
13. Angels 3-1
14. Angels 5-2
15. Angels 2-1
16. Angels 4-1
17. Reds 3-1
18. Reds 5-2
19. Angels 6-3
20. Angels 6-4
.
.
100. Angels 11-2

 

Angels vs Reds, Opening Day Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Angels and the Reds.

Angels vs Reds
Jered Weaver vs Johnny Cueto

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 44.32%
Angels on average score 3.42 runs
Reds on average score 3.72 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 7.14

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jered Weaver - 6.0ip, 6.3so, 1.8bb, 6.1hits, 0.8hrs, 97pitches, 3.763fip
Johnny Cueto - 6.5ip, 6.3so, 1.5bb, 6.4hits, 0.6hrs, 100pitches, 3.173fip

Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds  player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce

Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.3 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Ryan Ludwick (1.2 times)

Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.385 times)
Reds  hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.656 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 47.96%
Over/Under: 7.5 110o -120u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 3-2
2. Reds 4-3
3. Reds 2-1
4. Angels 3-2
5. Reds 5-4
6. Angels 2-1
7. Angels 4-3
8. Reds 3-1
9. Reds 4-2
10. Angels 4-2
11. Angels 3-1
12. Reds 4-1
13. Reds 1-0
14. Reds 5-3
15. Reds 5-2
16. Angels 5-4
17. Angels 4-1
18. Angels 5-3
19. Reds 6-5
20. Reds 2-0
.
.
98. Angels 9-0

Best Lineup - New York Yankees

In my previous post, I looked at the best lineup for the Cincinatti Reds.  Next up are the New York Yankees in my Best Lineup series.  The Yankees have had many injuries along with a few new faces this pre-season.  I will compare the lineup that MLB Depth Charts lists as their most likely lineup against what the simulator thinks is the best lineup and this will be done both against a RH and LH pitcher.  In order to do this the simulator plays one game millions of times and picks the game with the highest winning percentage as the best lineup.  And a last note before the results are shown.  The injury to Mark Teixeira happened after I had started the Yankees portion of this exercise.  I will address a lineup without Teixeira in a later post.  Below are the results.

Important Reading Source: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds Part 2

A couple of Reds fans brought up a pretty interesting idea. Instead of using the 2013 Bill James projections and the 2013 most likely lineup, they asked me to run simulations using the actual 2012 stats as input and to use the 2012 roster to come up with the best 2012 lineup and compare it against the lineup that manager Dusty Baker used the most. Let's see how many wins per 162 games the Reds could've saved themselves had they used the most efficient lineup. In this Part 2 exercise I am only going to look at the Reds vs RHP.

Most Common 2012 Lineup
1. Zack Cozart
2. Drew Stubbs
3. Joey Votto (L)
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Jay Bruce (L)
6. Ryan Ludwick
7. Todd Frazier
8. Ryan Hanigan
9. Pitchers Spot

Simulator Most Efficient 2012 Lineup
1. Ryan Hanigan
2. Joey Votto (L)
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce (L)
5. Ryan Ludwick
6. Todd Frazier
7. Drew Stubbs
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Zack Cozart
Wins/162 Better Than Most Common 2012 Lineup: 1.48

A quick look back at the Part One post, where the 2013 Bill James Projections had Zack Cozart hitting 5th - let's see how that lineup would look using the 2012 actual stats instead of those from Bill James. Keep in mind the Reds now have Shin-Soo Choo, so I just replaced him with Drew Stubbs, so it is not exactly a one to one comparison.

Bill James 2013 Most Efficient Lineup
1. Drew Stubbs << was Choo
2. Joey Votto
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Ryan Ludwick
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Notes: This lineup is 2.35 wins/162 games worse than the most efficient lineup using 2012 stats.

So there is a big difference in picking the most efficient lineup based on what stats you use as input, the 2012 actual stats or the 2013 Bill James Projections. The projections will have some regression built in to them, where a poor 2012 season will be regressed up and a great 2012 season will be regressed back down. Another thing to try would be to use a different set of 2013 player projections and see if they differ significantly from what the Bill James projections came up with.

Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Houston Astros. Up at the plate this time are the Cincinnati Reds. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Important reading sources: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto (L)
4. Ryan Ludwick
5. Jay Bruce (L)
6. Todd Frazier
7. Zack Cozart
8. Ryan Hanigan
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Simulator Lineup vs RHP
1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Joey Votto (L)
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce (L)
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Ryan Ludwick
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.14

Best Simulator Lineup vs LHP
1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Jay Bruce (L)
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Joey Votto (L)
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Ryan Ludwick
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.75

Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into Baseball Musings lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP.

Here is the lineup they suggest.

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings)
1. Joey Votto (L)
2. Ryan Ludwick
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce (L)
5. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
6. Todd Frazier
7. Zack Cozart
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs RHP): 0.70
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs LHP): 0.46


Skinny: First off, the simulator agrees with MLBDC that Choo should hit leadoff. Joey Votto is an incredible hitter, putting up amazing numbers in both OBP and SLG. The simulator likes him hitting 2nd against RHP with Bruce hitting cleanup then the simulator swaps positions with them against LHP. Other than that swap, the vs RHP and vs LHP lineups are the same. The simulator feels that Ryan Ludwick should not sniff the middle of the order, his power can be put to better use clearing the bases or drawing walks before the pitcher comes up to bat. Instead, the simulator likes placing Zack Cozart in to the 5th slot to help get some more ducks on the pond after Votto or Bruce hit. Both MLBDC and the simulator have Todd Frazier hitting 6th. Ryan Hanigan and his very unique skillset of having a higher OBP than SLG is put to use as a bottom of the order leadoff man and of course the best spot for the pitcher to hit is 8th.

Best Lineup - Houston Astros

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Up at the plate this time are the newest AL team, the Houston Astros. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Important reading sources: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Tyler Greene
2. Jose Altuve
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Brett Wallace (L)
6. Justin Maxwell
7. Jason Castro (L)
8. Fernando Martinez (L) << J.D. Martinez
9. Matt Dominguez

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Carlos Pena (L)
2. Jose Altuve
3. Brett Wallace (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Justin Maxwell
6. Tyler Greene
7. Fernando Martinez (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.50

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. J.D. Martinez
2. Tyler Greene
3. Jose Altuve
4. Justin Maxwell
5. Jason Castro (L)
6. Chris Carter
7. Carlos Pena (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Brett Wallace (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.43

Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into Baseball Musings lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP with J.D. Martinez used against LHP and Fernando Martinez against RHP.

Here is the lineup they suggest.

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs RHP
1. Jose Altuve
2. Justin Maxwell
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Brett Wallace (L)
6. Tyler Greene
7. Fernando Martinez (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.36

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs LHP
1. Jose Altuve
2. Justin Maxwell
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. J.D. Martinez
6. Tyler Greene
7. Brett Wallace (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.14

And just for fun, I flipped the best lineup that the simulator spits out vs RHP upside down just to see how much worse it came out. The answer was 0.82 runs per 162 games.

Skinny: A lot of info here, but a few things stick out. First off, the simulator thinks that Tyler Greene should not sniff the top portion of the lineup against RHP but with the platoon advantage batting him 2nd is Ok. Jose Altuve is properly placed 2nd or 3rd in the order. Carlos Pena should leadoff against RHP, he has the 4th highest BB% in all of MLB over the past two years, but man that batting average is a killer. The simulator agrees with MLBDC that Chris Carter should bat cleanup against RHP and he drops from 5th to 6th against LHP to avoid batting lefties back to back. Brett Wallace runs the gamut, batting 3rd against RHP and last against LHP. The simulator actually likes Justin Maxwell quite a bit as does Baseball Musings. The simulator bats him 4th and 5th while Baseball Musings bats him 2nd. Jason Castro bats (2nd leadoff) or 9th vs RHP and shoots up to 5th against LHP. He would've been 6th, but I didn't want to bat back to back lefties against a LHP. There is good agreement on batting Fernando Martinez in the bottom third of the lineup (he only faces RHP). Same with Matt Dominguez. The simulator likes J.D. Martinez leading off when he plays against LHP while Baseball Musings bats him 5th.

So in a nutshell, that is your Houston Astros lineup analysis. There doesn't seem like huge amounts of wins to be saved by batting the most efficient lineup. National League lineups in general, have more runs to squeeze out of lineup construction due to the pitcher batting and surrounding the pitcher with the proper hitters and batting the pitcher in the proper spot (8th).

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Kansas City Royals. Up at the plate this time are the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Starling Marte
2. Neil Walker (S)
3. Andrew McCutchen
4. Garrett Jones (L)
5. Pedro Alvarez (L)
6. Russell Martin
7. Travis Snider (L) << Gaby Sanchez vs LHP
8. Clint Barmes
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Russell Martin
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Neil Walker (S)
4. Garrett Jones (L)
5. Pedro Alvarez (L)
6. Travis Snider (L)
7. Clint Barmes
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Starling Marte
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.84

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. Russell Martin
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Garrett Jones (L)
4. Neil Walker (S)
5. Starling Marte
6. Gaby Sanchez
7. Clint Barmes
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Pedro Alvarez (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.48

Skinny: The thing that pops up right away is that the simulator likes Russell Martin and his low batting average and decent OBP at the top of the order.  The top four lineup spots are almost the same vs both RH/LH pitchers with Jones and Walker flopped at the 3rd and 4th spots.  Marte who is projected by MLBDepthCharts to leadoff finds himself batting 9th against RHP and 5th against LHP.  I am a little surprised at Marte batting 9th against RHP but there are a slew of left handed batters that bump him down, so it really comes down to batting 7th in front of the pitcher, or batting 9th where he comes in to play as a table setter (leadoff man) at the bottom of the order, kind of like Alvarez does against LHP.

And if you haven't noticed, batting the pitcher 8th and not 9th pretty much helps every single NL team.

Best Lineup - Kansas City Royals

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the New York Mets. Up at the plate this time are the Kansas City Royals. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Bob Ellis over at Kings Of Kauffman came up with his own hand-picked best Royals lineup, so I will also be comparing to his suggested lineup. In this exercise all player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Lorenzo Cain
2. Alcides Escobar
3. Alex Gordon (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Salvador Perez
7. Eric Hosmer (L)
8. Jeff Francouer
9. Chris Getz (L)

Lineup from Kings Of Kauffman (vs RHP)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Salvador Perez
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Jeff Francouer
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.705 (vs RHP)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.293 (vs LHP)

Best Lineup vs RHP (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.831

Best Lineup vs LHP  (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.408

Skinny: A couple of things pop up quickly when looking at the lineups.  The first is that the best lineup vs RHP is the same lineup vs LHP.  The simulator does not want the Royals to change their lineup if facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher.  The MLB Depth Charts lineup is a pretty efficient one, but Kings Of Kauffman does a pretty good job on coming up with an efficient lineup.  Kings Of Kauffman is able to shave off 0.705 more wins per 162 games than the MLBDC lineup (vs RHP).  With the most efficient lineup coming in at winning an extra 0.831 vs RHP.  One thing that I kind of ignored in this exercise was worrying about stacking up too many left-handed hitting players back to back (LOOGY protection).  The Kings Of Kauffman lineup batted three lefties in a row, while the most efficient simulator lineup batted four.  MLBDC took extra care not to bat any lefties back to back.  Obviously, if I were to follow the same constraints as MLBDC did - the most efficient lineup would look pretty similar to the MLBDC lineup.  In the end not a great big difference when looking at how many wins are gained over a 162 game period, but every little bit helps.

Kings Of Kauffman and the Simulator agree on the first two batters (Gordon, Hosmer).  KOK puts catcher Salvador Perez in the third spot, while the simulator bumps him all the way down to 8th.  The simulator bats Moustakas third, while KOK bats him fifth.  Billy Butler is the choice of both for cleanup batter.  Cain bats sixth and Gets ninth in both systems, with Escobar bumped up one slot in the sim.

Best Lineup - New York Mets

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up at the plate this time are the New York Mets who have David Wright and a few warm bodies. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Ruben Tejada
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Mike Baxter (L) << Andrew Brown is platoon partner
7. John Buck
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) << Collin Cowgill is platoon partner
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Mike Baxter (L)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. John Buck
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.46

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. Collin Cowgill (S)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. Ike Davis (L)
4. David Wright
5. Andrew Brown
6. John Buck
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Lucas Duda (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.71

Skinny: Using the Bill James projections, Ruben Tejada should not bat near the top of the lineup because he does not get on base nearly enough. Both Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill who are platoon players, seem to be the best fit as leadoff men (depending on the handedness of the pitcher). Batting Daniel Murphy second is a good choice and David Wright and Ike Davis batting 3rd and 4th (swapped) is the correct location in the lineup. Duda, who is best in the 5th spot against RHP, helps the team out the most as the 9th batter against left handed pitching. Andrew Brown sneaks up to the 5th spot in the lineup when he is in there against LHP.

Best Lineup - Arizona Diamondbacks

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Arizona Diamondbacks who have made a few changes in the past couple of weeks - most notably trading Justin Upton to the Braves for Martin Prado. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Aaron Hill
3. Miguel Montero (L)
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Martin Prado
6. Paul Goldschmidth
7. Cody Ross
8. Cliff Pennington (S)
9. Pitchers Spot


Best lineup vs RHP

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Miguel Montero (L)
3. Martin Prado
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Cody Ross
6. Aaron Hill
7. Paul Goldschmidt
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.10 wins


Best lineup vs LHP
1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Martin Prado
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Cody Ross
5. Aaron Hill
6. Jason Kubel (L)
7. Miguel Montero (L)
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.62 wins


Skinny: Adam Eaton is the logical choice to bat leadoff. Martin Prado stays in the top third of the lineup against both pitchers, while Cody Ross stays in the middle. The lefties Kubel and Montero drop a few places against the lefties, while Cliff Pennington is the overwhelming pick to bat 9th behind the pitcher.

Best Lineup vs RHP - Chicago Cubs

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Atlanta Braves vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Chicago Cubs who could use all the extra squeezing of runs out of this lineup. I am doing things a little differently for the Cubs, not because they are special but because as this series evolves I am finding different and better ways to provide data. I am first looking at how the Cubs should stack their lineup against only RHP. I will break the results down in to different segments, where each segment has a different set of specs on how the lineup is constructed. For example, the Cubs have four left handed and four right handed hitters. In order to protect their lineup from the LOOGY, I am going to come up with a best lineup where the left handed batters hit 2-4-6-8 and 1-3-5-7. I will also submit a best lineup that has one set of back to back left handed hitters max. These three constructions will also have the pitcher batting 9th. And finally, I will have the simulator determine the best overall lineup with no limitations to how the lineup is constructed. You may see four lefties hitting together and maybe the pitcher batting 8th. In the end I will compare how these lineups do versus the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts. Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Cubs lineup. Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Atlanta Braves

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Atlanta Braves who sport the Upton brothers. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Braves lineup.  Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Philadelphia Phillies

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Seattle Mariners vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Philadelphia Phillies. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  What you will see with the Phillies are some pretty big differences between the lineup that the Phillies are projected to use and the one that the simulator thinks is the most efficient.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Seattle Mariners

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Anaheim Angels vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Seattle Mariners. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  What you will see with the Mariners are some typical differences in lineups based on the handedness of the starting pitcher.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.