Monday, April 1, 2013

Angels vs Reds, Opening Day Simulation Results


Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Angels and the Reds.

Angels vs Reds
Jered Weaver vs Johnny Cueto

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 44.32%
Angels on average score 3.42 runs
Reds on average score 3.72 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 7.14

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jered Weaver - 6.0ip, 6.3so, 1.8bb, 6.1hits, 0.8hrs, 97pitches, 3.763fip
Johnny Cueto - 6.5ip, 6.3so, 1.5bb, 6.4hits, 0.6hrs, 100pitches, 3.173fip

Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds  player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce

Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.3 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Ryan Ludwick (1.2 times)

Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.385 times)
Reds  hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.656 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 47.96%
Over/Under: 7.5 110o -120u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 3-2
2. Reds 4-3
3. Reds 2-1
4. Angels 3-2
5. Reds 5-4
6. Angels 2-1
7. Angels 4-3
8. Reds 3-1
9. Reds 4-2
10. Angels 4-2
11. Angels 3-1
12. Reds 4-1
13. Reds 1-0
14. Reds 5-3
15. Reds 5-2
16. Angels 5-4
17. Angels 4-1
18. Angels 5-3
19. Reds 6-5
20. Reds 2-0
.
.
98. Angels 9-0

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