Same exercise as before. I am using my baseball simulator to find out what it thinks are the best lineup constructions. The only twist, is that I am not inputting normal 9 person lineups in to it. I am for the most part entering two person lineups, with one person taking 8 lineup spots and the other person taking 1. I then switch roles between the two players with the other batting 8 times. I am running each game one million times in order to keep the noise down to a minimal level.
In the latest exercise I was asked to run some simulations using players with extreme OBP and SLG% numbers. So what I did was dig through the past two seasons of stats over at Fangraphs and came up with the following combinations of players that I am going to look at. There is a lot of data here, so I leave the analysis to the reader for the time being.
They are...
Low OBP/Low SLG: Paul Janish
Low OBP/High SLG: Mark Trumbo
High OBP/Low SLG: Jamey Carroll
High OBP/High SLG: Miguel Cabrera
High OBP/Reasonable SLG: Derek Jeter
From this list here are the combinations I ran.
Janish(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Janish(1)
Janish(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Janish(1)
Janish(8) + Carroll(1) / Carroll(8) + Janish(1)
Carroll(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Carroll(1)
Trumbo(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Trumbo(1)
Carroll(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Carroll(1)
Jeter(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Jeter(1)
Jeter(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Jeter(1)
And now for the results...
Janish(8) / Trumbo(1) | --- | Trumbo(8) / Janish(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 34.9775 | 0 | 8 | 49.7346 | 0 | |
3 | 34.8948 | 0.1340 | 9 | 49.7336 | 0.0016 | |
1 | 34.8410 | 0.2211 | 7 | 49.6487 | 0.1392 | |
2 | 34.8203 | 0.2547 | 3 | 49.5896 | 0.2349 | |
5 | 34.7452 | 0.3763 | 5 | 49.5601 | 0.2827 | |
6 | 34.7385 | 0.3872 | 6 | 49.5563 | 0.2888 | |
7 | 34.7357 | 0.3917 | 1 | 49.5277 | 0.3352 | |
9 | 34.5658 | 0.6670 | 2 | 49.5209 | 0.3462 | |
8 | 34.5246 | 0.7337 | 4 | 49.469 | 0.4303 |
Janish(8) / Cabrera(1) | --- | Cabrera(8) / Janish(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 37.6269 | 0 | 9 | 68.5955 | 0 | |
3 | 37.4461 | 0.2929 | 7 | 68.5942 | 0.0021 | |
1 | 37.4292 | 0.3203 | 8 | 68.5734 | 0.0358 | |
5 | 37.4104 | 0.3507 | 6 | 68.4457 | 0.2427 | |
2 | 37.4042 | 0.3608 | 5 | 68.3185 | 0.4487 | |
7 | 37.1052 | 0.8452 | 2 | 68.2383 | 0.5787 | |
6 | 37.1022 | 0.8500 | 1 | 68.2342 | 0.5853 | |
8 | 36.9428 | 1.1082 | 3 | 68.2029 | 0.6360 | |
9 | 36.8567 | 1.2477 | 4 | 68.1678 | 0.6929 |
Janish(8) / Carroll(1) | --- | Carroll(8) / Janish(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 37.6269 | 0.0000 | 3 | 37.8028 | 0.0000 | |
3 | 37.4461 | 0.2929 | 2 | 37.7498 | 0.0859 | |
1 | 37.4292 | 0.3203 | 9 | 37.7246 | 0.1267 | |
5 | 37.4104 | 0.3507 | 7 | 37.7231 | 0.1291 | |
2 | 37.4042 | 0.3608 | 8 | 37.7034 | 0.1610 | |
7 | 37.1052 | 0.8452 | 6 | 37.7015 | 0.1641 | |
6 | 37.1022 | 0.8500 | 4 | 37.6944 | 0.1756 | |
8 | 36.9428 | 1.1082 | 5 | 37.6929 | 0.1780 | |
9 | 36.8567 | 1.2477 | 1 | 37.6217 | 0.2934 |
Carroll(8) / Trumbo(1) | --- | Trumbo(8) / Carroll(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win% | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 40.2836 | 0.0000 | 8 | 50.2869 | 0.0000 | |
4 | 40.2666 | 0.0275 | 9 | 50.2751 | 0.0191 | |
5 | 40.1164 | 0.2709 | 7 | 50.2635 | 0.0379 | |
2 | 40.0933 | 0.3083 | 6 | 50.2080 | 0.1278 | |
7 | 40.0500 | 0.3784 | 5 | 50.1385 | 0.2404 | |
6 | 40.0408 | 0.3933 | 1 | 50.1247 | 0.2628 | |
1 | 40.0304 | 0.4102 | 3 | 50.1047 | 0.2952 | |
8 | 39.8838 | 0.6477 | 2 | 50.1002 | 0.3025 | |
9 | 39.7699 | 0.8322 | 4 | 50.0628 | 0.3630 |
Trumbo(8) / Cabrera(1) | --- | Cabrera(8) / Trumbo(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 53.8249 | 0 | 7 | 70.01 | 0 | |
3 | 53.8007 | 0.0392 | 8 | 69.9175 | 0.0925 | |
1 | 53.7947 | 0.0489 | 9 | 69.8885 | 0.1215 | |
5 | 53.7547 | 0.1137 | 6 | 69.8337 | 0.1763 | |
2 | 53.6532 | 0.2782 | 5 | 69.7523 | 0.2577 | |
6 | 53.6243 | 0.3250 | 2 | 69.6939 | 0.3161 | |
7 | 53.5748 | 0.4052 | 3 | 69.625 | 0.3850 | |
8 | 53.5312 | 0.4758 | 4 | 69.6181 | 0.3919 | |
9 | 53.4249 | 0.6480 | 1 | 69.5681 | 0.4419 |
Carroll(8) / Cabrera(1) | --- | Cabrera(8) / Carroll(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 43.2113 | 0.0000 | 9 | 69.3593 | 0.0000 | |
4 | 43.1980 | 0.0215 | 8 | 69.2708 | 0.1434 | |
1 | 43.0813 | 0.2106 | 7 | 69.2681 | 0.1477 | |
5 | 43.0555 | 0.2524 | 6 | 69.2231 | 0.2206 | |
2 | 42.9291 | 0.4572 | 1 | 68.9639 | 0.6405 | |
6 | 42.8176 | 0.6378 | 2 | 68.9631 | 0.6418 | |
7 | 42.7296 | 0.7804 | 4 | 68.9541 | 0.6564 | |
8 | 42.5750 | 1.0308 | 3 | 68.9445 | 0.6720 | |
9 | 42.5124 | 1.1322 | 5 | 68.9238 | 0.7055 |
Jeter(8) / Cabrera(1) | --- | Cabrera(8) / Jeter(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behind | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 54.7834 | 0 | 8 | 70.3254 | 0 | |
3 | 54.728 | 0.0897 | 9 | 70.2421 | 0.1349 | |
1 | 54.5828 | 0.3250 | 6 | 70.1513 | 0.2820 | |
2 | 54.5548 | 0.3703 | 7 | 70.1513 | 0.2820 | |
5 | 54.5485 | 0.3805 | 5 | 70.0599 | 0.4301 | |
6 | 54.501 | 0.4575 | 1 | 70.0565 | 0.4356 | |
9 | 54.4066 | 0.6104 | 3 | 70.036 | 0.4688 | |
7 | 54.3393 | 0.7194 | 2 | 70.0007 | 0.5260 | |
8 | 54.3196 | 0.7514 | 4 | 69.9401 | 0.6242 |
Jeter(8) / Trumbo(1) | --- | Trumbo(8) / Jeter(1) | ||||
Location | Win % | Wins Behin | Location | Win % | Wins Behind | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 51.9105 | 0 | 1 | 51.5273 | 0 | |
4 | 51.891 | 0.0316 | 9 | 51.5155 | 0.0191 | |
5 | 51.8167 | 0.1520 | 5 | 51.4631 | 0.1040 | |
7 | 51.8135 | 0.1571 | 7 | 51.4489 | 0.1270 | |
9 | 51.7951 | 0.1869 | 8 | 51.4472 | 0.1298 | |
6 | 51.7844 | 0.2043 | 6 | 51.4308 | 0.1563 | |
2 | 51.7694 | 0.2286 | 2 | 51.4004 | 0.2056 | |
8 | 51.7409 | 0.2748 | 3 | 51.175 | 0.5707 | |
1 | 51.6756 | 0.3805 | 4 | 51.1678 | 0.5824 |
Notes:
Name(X) means lineup included X idenitical players of that person.
Location: Refers to where the person with 1 player in the lineup batted.
Win %: Win Percentage
Wins Behind: How many wins per/162 games each lineup finished behind the top lineup in the set.
Good work XeiFrank. I have enjoyed this series of posts and hope that you continue the theme.
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