Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Where To Bat Your Best Hitter - Part V


Same exercise as before.  I am using my baseball simulator to find out what it thinks are the best lineup constructions.  The only twist, is that I am not inputting normal 9 person lineups in to it.  I am for the most part entering two person lineups, with one person taking 8 lineup spots and the other person taking 1.  I then switch roles between the two players with the other batting 8 times.  I am running each game one million times in order to keep the noise down to a minimal level.

In the latest exercise I was asked to run some simulations using players with extreme OBP and SLG% numbers.  So what I did was dig through the past two seasons of stats over at Fangraphs and came up with the following combinations of players that I am going to look at.  There is a lot of data here, so I leave the analysis to the reader for the time being.

They are...
Low OBP/Low SLG: Paul Janish
Low OBP/High SLG: Mark Trumbo
High OBP/Low SLG: Jamey Carroll
High OBP/High SLG: Miguel Cabrera
High OBP/Reasonable SLG: Derek Jeter

From this list here are the combinations I ran.

Janish(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Janish(1)
Janish(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Janish(1)
Janish(8) + Carroll(1) / Carroll(8) + Janish(1)
Carroll(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Carroll(1)
Trumbo(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Trumbo(1)
Carroll(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Carroll(1)
Jeter(8) + Trumbo(1) / Trumbo(8) + Jeter(1)
Jeter(8) + Cabrera(1) / Cabrera(8) + Jeter(1)

And now for the results...


Janish(8) / Trumbo(1) --- Trumbo(8) / Janish(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
434.97750 849.73460
334.89480.1340 949.73360.0016
134.84100.2211 749.64870.1392
234.82030.2547 349.58960.2349
534.74520.3763 549.56010.2827
634.73850.3872 649.55630.2888
734.73570.3917 149.52770.3352
934.56580.6670 249.52090.3462
834.52460.7337 449.4690.4303


Janish(8) / Cabrera(1) --- Cabrera(8) / Janish(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
437.62690 968.59550
337.44610.2929 768.59420.0021
137.42920.3203 868.57340.0358
537.41040.3507 668.44570.2427
237.40420.3608 568.31850.4487
737.10520.8452 268.23830.5787
637.10220.8500 168.23420.5853
836.94281.1082 368.20290.6360
936.85671.2477 468.16780.6929


Janish(8) / Carroll(1) --- Carroll(8) / Janish(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
437.62690.0000 337.80280.0000
337.44610.2929 237.74980.0859
137.42920.3203 937.72460.1267
537.41040.3507 737.72310.1291
237.40420.3608 837.70340.1610
737.10520.8452 637.70150.1641
637.10220.8500 437.69440.1756
836.94281.1082 537.69290.1780
936.85671.2477 137.62170.2934


Carroll(8) / Trumbo(1) --- Trumbo(8) / Carroll(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin%Wins Behind
340.28360.0000 850.28690.0000
440.26660.0275 950.27510.0191
540.11640.2709 750.26350.0379
240.09330.3083 650.20800.1278
740.05000.3784 550.13850.2404
640.04080.3933 150.12470.2628
140.03040.4102 350.10470.2952
839.88380.6477 250.10020.3025
939.76990.8322 450.06280.3630


Trumbo(8) / Cabrera(1) --- Cabrera(8) / Trumbo(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
453.82490 770.010
353.80070.0392 869.91750.0925
153.79470.0489 969.88850.1215
553.75470.1137 669.83370.1763
253.65320.2782 569.75230.2577
653.62430.3250 269.69390.3161
753.57480.4052 369.6250.3850
853.53120.4758 469.61810.3919
953.42490.6480 169.56810.4419


Carroll(8) / Cabrera(1) --- Cabrera(8) / Carroll(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
343.21130.0000 969.35930.0000
443.19800.0215 869.27080.1434
143.08130.2106 769.26810.1477
543.05550.2524 669.22310.2206
242.92910.4572 168.96390.6405
642.81760.6378 268.96310.6418
742.72960.7804 468.95410.6564
842.57501.0308 368.94450.6720
942.51241.1322 568.92380.7055


Jeter(8) / Cabrera(1) --- Cabrera(8) / Jeter(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behind LocationWin %Wins Behind
454.78340 870.32540
354.7280.0897 970.24210.1349
154.58280.3250 670.15130.2820
254.55480.3703 770.15130.2820
554.54850.3805 570.05990.4301
654.5010.4575 170.05650.4356
954.40660.6104 370.0360.4688
754.33930.7194 270.00070.5260
854.31960.7514 469.94010.6242


Jeter(8) / Trumbo(1) --- Trumbo(8) / Jeter(1)
LocationWin %Wins Behin LocationWin %Wins Behind
351.91050 151.52730
451.8910.0316 951.51550.0191
551.81670.1520 551.46310.1040
751.81350.1571 751.44890.1270
951.79510.1869 851.44720.1298
651.78440.2043 651.43080.1563
251.76940.2286 251.40040.2056
851.74090.2748 351.1750.5707
151.67560.3805 451.16780.5824

Notes:
Name(X) means lineup included X idenitical players of that person.
Location: Refers to where the person with 1 player in the lineup batted.
Win %: Win Percentage
Wins Behind: How many wins per/162 games each lineup finished behind the top lineup in the set.

1 comment:

  1. Good work XeiFrank. I have enjoyed this series of posts and hope that you continue the theme.

    ReplyDelete