Simulation Results (Screenshot)
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Athletics vs Angels - April 9th Simulation Results
Here is a screenshot of the results of today's simulation of the Athletics vs Angels game. Please keep in mind that the simulation was ran before the lineups were announced. The lineups should be close but not an exact match of the actual ones. This game was simulated 100K times.
Friday, April 5, 2013
Angels vs Rangers - April 5th Simulation Results
Here are the simulation results for the April 5th game between the Angels and the Rangers.
Angels (1-2) vs Rangers (2-1)
Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland
Record: 1-2 (0.333)
RS: 11
RA: 11
Pythag Win%: 0.500
Pythag Pace: 81- 81
Pythag Record: 1.5 - 1.5
Record As Favorites: 0-1
Record As Underdogs: 1-1
Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy is 51.73%
Angels on average score 5.72 runs
Rangers on average score 5.23 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 10.95
Starting Pitching Lines:
Jason Vargas - 5.4ip, 3.3so, 1.8bb, 6.7hits, 1.07hrs, 88pitches, 5.554fip
Derek Holland - 5.4ip, 5.1so, 1.9bb, 6.3hits, 1.15hrs, 90pitches, 5.097fip
Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 47.28%
Over/Under: 10.0 -110o +100u
Notes: This looks like a high scoring game.
Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Rangers 5-4
2. Rangers 4-3
3. Rangers 6-5
4. Rangers 3-2
5. Angels 5-4
6. Angels 4-3
7. Rangers 7-6
8. Angels 6-5
9. Angels 5-3
10. Rangers 5-3
11. Angels 6-4
12. Angels 3-2
13. Rangers 6-4
14. Rangers 4-2
15. Angels 4-2
16. Angels 6-3
17. Angels 7-6
18. Rangers 8-7
19. Angels 7-5
20. Rangers 6-3
.
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100. Angels 11-2
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Monday, April 1, 2013
Angels vs Reds, Opening Day Simulation Results
Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Angels and the Reds.
Angels vs Reds
Jered Weaver vs Johnny Cueto
Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 44.32%
Angels on average score 3.42 runs
Reds on average score 3.72 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 7.14
Starting Pitching Lines:
Jered Weaver - 6.0ip, 6.3so, 1.8bb, 6.1hits, 0.8hrs, 97pitches, 3.763fip
Johnny Cueto - 6.5ip, 6.3so, 1.5bb, 6.4hits, 0.6hrs, 100pitches, 3.173fip
Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce
Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.3 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Ryan Ludwick (1.2 times)
Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.385 times)
Reds hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.656 times)
Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 47.96%
Over/Under: 7.5 110o -120u
Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 3-2
2. Reds 4-3
3. Reds 2-1
4. Angels 3-2
5. Reds 5-4
6. Angels 2-1
7. Angels 4-3
8. Reds 3-1
9. Reds 4-2
10. Angels 4-2
11. Angels 3-1
12. Reds 4-1
13. Reds 1-0
14. Reds 5-3
15. Reds 5-2
16. Angels 5-4
17. Angels 4-1
18. Angels 5-3
19. Reds 6-5
20. Reds 2-0
.
.
98. Angels 9-0
Friday, March 8, 2013
Best Lineup - New York Yankees
In my previous post, I looked at the best lineup for the Cincinatti Reds. Next up are the New York Yankees in my Best Lineup series. The Yankees have had many injuries along with a few new faces this pre-season. I will compare the lineup that MLB Depth Charts lists as their most likely lineup against what the simulator thinks is the best lineup and this will be done both against a RH and LH pitcher. In order to do this the simulator plays one game millions of times and picks the game with the highest winning percentage as the best lineup. And a last note before the results are shown. The injury to Mark Teixeira happened after I had started the Yankees portion of this exercise. I will address a lineup without Teixeira in a later post. Below are the results.
Important Reading Source: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book
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