Best Lineup - Kansas City Royals

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the New York Mets. Up at the plate this time are the Kansas City Royals. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Bob Ellis over at Kings Of Kauffman came up with his own hand-picked best Royals lineup, so I will also be comparing to his suggested lineup. In this exercise all player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Lorenzo Cain
2. Alcides Escobar
3. Alex Gordon (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Salvador Perez
7. Eric Hosmer (L)
8. Jeff Francouer
9. Chris Getz (L)

Lineup from Kings Of Kauffman (vs RHP)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Salvador Perez
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Jeff Francouer
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.705 (vs RHP)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.293 (vs LHP)

Best Lineup vs RHP (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.831

Best Lineup vs LHP  (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.408

Skinny: A couple of things pop up quickly when looking at the lineups.  The first is that the best lineup vs RHP is the same lineup vs LHP.  The simulator does not want the Royals to change their lineup if facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher.  The MLB Depth Charts lineup is a pretty efficient one, but Kings Of Kauffman does a pretty good job on coming up with an efficient lineup.  Kings Of Kauffman is able to shave off 0.705 more wins per 162 games than the MLBDC lineup (vs RHP).  With the most efficient lineup coming in at winning an extra 0.831 vs RHP.  One thing that I kind of ignored in this exercise was worrying about stacking up too many left-handed hitting players back to back (LOOGY protection).  The Kings Of Kauffman lineup batted three lefties in a row, while the most efficient simulator lineup batted four.  MLBDC took extra care not to bat any lefties back to back.  Obviously, if I were to follow the same constraints as MLBDC did - the most efficient lineup would look pretty similar to the MLBDC lineup.  In the end not a great big difference when looking at how many wins are gained over a 162 game period, but every little bit helps.

Kings Of Kauffman and the Simulator agree on the first two batters (Gordon, Hosmer).  KOK puts catcher Salvador Perez in the third spot, while the simulator bumps him all the way down to 8th.  The simulator bats Moustakas third, while KOK bats him fifth.  Billy Butler is the choice of both for cleanup batter.  Cain bats sixth and Gets ninth in both systems, with Escobar bumped up one slot in the sim.

Best Lineup - New York Mets

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up at the plate this time are the New York Mets who have David Wright and a few warm bodies. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Ruben Tejada
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Mike Baxter (L) << Andrew Brown is platoon partner
7. John Buck
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) << Collin Cowgill is platoon partner
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Mike Baxter (L)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. John Buck
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.46

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. Collin Cowgill (S)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. Ike Davis (L)
4. David Wright
5. Andrew Brown
6. John Buck
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Lucas Duda (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.71

Skinny: Using the Bill James projections, Ruben Tejada should not bat near the top of the lineup because he does not get on base nearly enough. Both Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill who are platoon players, seem to be the best fit as leadoff men (depending on the handedness of the pitcher). Batting Daniel Murphy second is a good choice and David Wright and Ike Davis batting 3rd and 4th (swapped) is the correct location in the lineup. Duda, who is best in the 5th spot against RHP, helps the team out the most as the 9th batter against left handed pitching. Andrew Brown sneaks up to the 5th spot in the lineup when he is in there against LHP.

Best Lineup - Arizona Diamondbacks

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Arizona Diamondbacks who have made a few changes in the past couple of weeks - most notably trading Justin Upton to the Braves for Martin Prado. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Aaron Hill
3. Miguel Montero (L)
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Martin Prado
6. Paul Goldschmidth
7. Cody Ross
8. Cliff Pennington (S)
9. Pitchers Spot


Best lineup vs RHP

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Miguel Montero (L)
3. Martin Prado
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Cody Ross
6. Aaron Hill
7. Paul Goldschmidt
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.10 wins


Best lineup vs LHP
1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Martin Prado
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Cody Ross
5. Aaron Hill
6. Jason Kubel (L)
7. Miguel Montero (L)
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.62 wins


Skinny: Adam Eaton is the logical choice to bat leadoff. Martin Prado stays in the top third of the lineup against both pitchers, while Cody Ross stays in the middle. The lefties Kubel and Montero drop a few places against the lefties, while Cliff Pennington is the overwhelming pick to bat 9th behind the pitcher.

Best Lineup vs RHP - Chicago Cubs

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Atlanta Braves vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Chicago Cubs who could use all the extra squeezing of runs out of this lineup. I am doing things a little differently for the Cubs, not because they are special but because as this series evolves I am finding different and better ways to provide data. I am first looking at how the Cubs should stack their lineup against only RHP. I will break the results down in to different segments, where each segment has a different set of specs on how the lineup is constructed. For example, the Cubs have four left handed and four right handed hitters. In order to protect their lineup from the LOOGY, I am going to come up with a best lineup where the left handed batters hit 2-4-6-8 and 1-3-5-7. I will also submit a best lineup that has one set of back to back left handed hitters max. These three constructions will also have the pitcher batting 9th. And finally, I will have the simulator determine the best overall lineup with no limitations to how the lineup is constructed. You may see four lefties hitting together and maybe the pitcher batting 8th. In the end I will compare how these lineups do versus the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts. Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Cubs lineup. Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Atlanta Braves

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Atlanta Braves who sport the Upton brothers. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Braves lineup.  Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Philadelphia Phillies

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Seattle Mariners vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Philadelphia Phillies. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  What you will see with the Phillies are some pretty big differences between the lineup that the Phillies are projected to use and the one that the simulator thinks is the most efficient.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.

Best Lineup - Seattle Mariners

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Anaheim Angels vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Seattle Mariners. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  What you will see with the Mariners are some typical differences in lineups based on the handedness of the starting pitcher.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.