Best Lineup - Atlanta Braves

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Atlanta Braves who sport the Upton brothers. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best.  The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from MLBDepthCharts.  Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Braves lineup.  Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won.  Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.


First a look at the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts

1. Andrelton Simmons (R)
2. Jason Heyward (L)
3. Justin Upton (R)
4. Freddie Freeman (L)
5. B.J. Upton (R)
6. Dan Uggla (R)
7. Juan Francisco (L) vs RHP
8. Gerald Laird (R)
9. Pitchers Spot

Note: Chris Johnson (R) platoons with Juan Francisco.

Now, what did the simulator spit out as the lineup that could score the most runs and win the most games?

vs RHP

1. Justin Upton
2. Andrelton Simmons
3. Freddie Freeman
4. Jason Heyward
5. B.J. Upton
6. Juan Francisco
7. Dan Uggla
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Gerald Laird

The lineup (vs RHP) that the simulator found to be the most efficient lineup wins 1.88 more games (per 162 games) than the default lineup.  In the table below, I take a look at how as we slowly move the default lineup around to where it becomes the most efficient lineup, we see where those 1.88 wins come from.

1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	Wins Behind
Simmons	Heyward	J.Upton	Freeman	B.Upton	Uggla	Francisco	Laird	Pitcher	1.88
Simmons	Heyward	J.Upton	Freeman	B.Upton	Uggla	Francisco	Pitcher	Laird	2.96
Simmons	Heyward	J.Upton	Freeman	B.Upton	Francisco	Uggla	Pitcher	Laird	0.68
J.Upton	Simmons	Heyward	Freeman	B.Upton	Francisco	Uggla	Pitcher	Laird	0.05
J.Upton	Simmons	Freeman	Heyward	B.Upton	Francisco	Uggla	Pitcher	Gerald Laird	0.00

Back of the napkin analysis: As with all the NL teams the simulator thinks the Braves should bat their pitcher 8th. There is a huge dropoff batting the pitcher 8th with the default lineup, so I did run a simulation with the pitcher batting 9th in the most efficient lineup and it ended up 1.24 runs worse than the most efficient lineup. The pitcher batting 8th works because of who is hitting at the top of the lineup when it gets turned over. The simulator really likes Juston Upton and his very OBP batting leadoff. Simmons has a decent OBP too, thus the nod for him to bat second. The simulator is not too crazy about batting Heyward 2nd and prefers him to bat cleanup, right behind Freeman. But the default lineup and simulator agree on which players should bat in the top five and the bottom five of the lineup, just not on the order.

Now let's take a look at the best lineup against a LHP...

and as it turns out the most efficient lineup against a LHP is the same as the one against a RHP. This is the first time I've seen this. The only difference of course being Chris Johnson playing in the place of Juan Francisco. So it looks like...

1. Justin Upton
2. Andrelton Simmons
3. Freddie Freeman
4. Jason Heyward
5. B.J. Upton
6. Chris Johnson
7. Dan Uggla
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Gerald Laird

The difference between the default and most efficient lineup vs LHP is 1.65 wins per 162 games.

Using Brian McCann, who may start the season on the DL at catcher instead of Gerald Laird provides the following most efficient lineup.

vs RHP
1. Justin Upton
2. Andrelton Simmons
3. Freddie Freeman
4. Jason Heyward
5. Brian McCann
6. Juan Francisco
7. Dan Uggla
8. Pitchers Spot
9. B.J. Upton

So we see the big change in going from Laird to McCann is that McCann slots in to the five spot where B.J. Upton use to be and B.J. Upton drops to the 9th spot, formerly held by Laird.