Angels vs Mariners - April 26th Simulation Results

Rangers vs Angels - April 22nd Simulation Results

Tigers vs Angels - April 19th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAA 3-2
2. LAA 4-3
3. LAA 5-4
4. LAA 2-1
5. DET 3-2
6. DET 4-3
7. LAA 4-2
8. LAA 3-1
9. DET 4-2
10. LAA 6-5
11. DET 2-1
12. DET 5-4
13. LAA 5-3
14. DET 5-3
15. LAA 5-2
16. DET 3-1
17. DET 5-2
18. LAA 4-1
19. DET 4-1
20. DET 6-5

Angels vs Twins - April 17th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. MIN 3-2
2. MIN 4-3
3. MIN 2-1
4. LAA 3-2
5. LAA 4-3
6. LAA 2-1
7. MIN 5-4
8. LAA 4-2
9. LAA 3-1
10. MIN 4-2
11. LAA 5-3
12. MIN 3-1
13. LAA 5-4
14. LAA 5-2
15. LAA 4-1
16. MIN 6-5
17. MIN 5-3
18. MIN 4-1
19. LAA 6-3
20. LAA 2-0

Notes about simulator:
It uses Zips projections as data inputs and then plays actual baseball games taking into account pretty much anything you can think of including, defense, base running, handedness advantages, park factors, pitchers tiring, leverage index for bullpen usage.  The lineups come from MLBDepthCharts and since the simulations are done before the actual lineups are published there may be some slight differences between the lineup the simulation uses and the actual one.  Each game is simulated 100k times and the average box scores are listed above.

Astros vs Angels - April 12th Simulation Results

Note: I will be in attendance at this game!!!

Athletics vs Angels - April 11th Simulation Results

Simulation Results (Screenshot)

Athletics vs Angels - April 10th Simulation Results

Box score screenshot.

Athletics vs Angels - April 9th Simulation Results

Here is a screenshot of the results of today's simulation of the Athletics vs Angels game.  Please keep in mind that the simulation was ran before the lineups were announced.  The lineups should be close but not an exact match of the actual ones.  This game was simulated 100K times.

Angels vs Rangers - April 5th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 5th game between the Angels and the Rangers.

Angels (1-2) vs Rangers (2-1)
Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland

Record: 1-2 (0.333)
RS: 11
RA: 11
Pythag Win%: 0.500
Pythag Pace: 81- 81
Pythag Record: 1.5 - 1.5
Record As Favorites: 0-1
Record As Underdogs:  1-1

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy is  51.73%
Angels on average score 5.72 runs
Rangers on average score 5.23  runs
Total Runs scored on average: 10.95

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jason Vargas - 5.4ip, 3.3so, 1.8bb, 6.7hits, 1.07hrs, 88pitches,  5.554fip
Derek Holland - 5.4ip, 5.1so, 1.9bb, 6.3hits, 1.15hrs, 90pitches,  5.097fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy:  47.28%
Over/Under: 10.0 -110o +100u
Notes: This looks like a high scoring game.

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Rangers 5-4
2. Rangers 4-3
3. Rangers 6-5
4. Rangers 3-2
5. Angels 5-4
6. Angels 4-3
7. Rangers 7-6
8. Angels 6-5
9.  Angels 5-3
10. Rangers 5-3
11. Angels 6-4
12. Angels 3-2
13. Rangers 6-4
14. Rangers 4-2
15. Angels 4-2
16. Angels 6-3
17. Angels 7-6
18. Rangers 8-7
19. Angels 7-5
20. Rangers 6-3
.
.
100. Angels 11-2

Angels vs Reds - April 4th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 4th game between the Angels and the Reds.

Angels vs Reds
Joe Blanton vs Bronson Arroyo

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 50.56%
Angels on average score 4.40 runs
Reds on average score 4.16 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 8.56

Starting Pitching Lines:
Joe Blanton - 6.0ip, 5.7so, 1.5bb, 6.1hits, 1.1hrs, 94pitches, 4.410fip
Bronson Arroyo - 6.0ip, 4.3so, 1.2bb, 6.8hits, 1.1hrs, 92pitches, 4.691fip

Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce

Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.1 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Chris Heisey (1.1 times)

Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.366 times)
Reds hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.606 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 48.31%
Over/Under: 8.5 o105, u-125

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 4-3
2. Reds 3-2
3. Reds 5-4
4. Angels 3-2
5. Angels 4-3
6. Reds 2-1
7. Angels 4-2
8. Angels 5-4
9. Reds 6-5
10. Reds 4-2
11. Angels 5-3
12. Reds 5-3
13. Angels 3-1
14. Angels 5-2
15. Angels 2-1
16. Angels 4-1
17. Reds 3-1
18. Reds 5-2
19. Angels 6-3
20. Angels 6-4
.
.
100. Angels 11-2

 

Angels vs Reds, Opening Day Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Angels and the Reds.

Angels vs Reds
Jered Weaver vs Johnny Cueto

Simulation Results Notes:
Angels win expectancy: 44.32%
Angels on average score 3.42 runs
Reds on average score 3.72 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 7.14

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jered Weaver - 6.0ip, 6.3so, 1.8bb, 6.1hits, 0.8hrs, 97pitches, 3.763fip
Johnny Cueto - 6.5ip, 6.3so, 1.5bb, 6.4hits, 0.6hrs, 100pitches, 3.173fip

Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton
Reds  player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce

Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.3 times)
Reds hitter most strikeouts: Ryan Ludwick (1.2 times)

Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.385 times)
Reds  hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.656 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Angels win expectancy: 47.96%
Over/Under: 7.5 110o -120u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Reds 3-2
2. Reds 4-3
3. Reds 2-1
4. Angels 3-2
5. Reds 5-4
6. Angels 2-1
7. Angels 4-3
8. Reds 3-1
9. Reds 4-2
10. Angels 4-2
11. Angels 3-1
12. Reds 4-1
13. Reds 1-0
14. Reds 5-3
15. Reds 5-2
16. Angels 5-4
17. Angels 4-1
18. Angels 5-3
19. Reds 6-5
20. Reds 2-0
.
.
98. Angels 9-0