Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Houston Astros. Up at the plate this time are the Cincinnati Reds. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Important reading sources: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Brandon Phillips
3. Joey Votto (L)
4. Ryan Ludwick
5. Jay Bruce (L)
6. Todd Frazier
7. Zack Cozart
8. Ryan Hanigan
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Simulator Lineup vs RHP
1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Joey Votto (L)
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce (L)
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Ryan Ludwick
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.14

Best Simulator Lineup vs LHP
1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
2. Jay Bruce (L)
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Joey Votto (L)
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Ryan Ludwick
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.75

Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into Baseball Musings lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP.

Here is the lineup they suggest.

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings)
1. Joey Votto (L)
2. Ryan Ludwick
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Jay Bruce (L)
5. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
6. Todd Frazier
7. Zack Cozart
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Ryan Hanigan
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs RHP): 0.70
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs LHP): 0.46


Skinny: First off, the simulator agrees with MLBDC that Choo should hit leadoff. Joey Votto is an incredible hitter, putting up amazing numbers in both OBP and SLG. The simulator likes him hitting 2nd against RHP with Bruce hitting cleanup then the simulator swaps positions with them against LHP. Other than that swap, the vs RHP and vs LHP lineups are the same. The simulator feels that Ryan Ludwick should not sniff the middle of the order, his power can be put to better use clearing the bases or drawing walks before the pitcher comes up to bat. Instead, the simulator likes placing Zack Cozart in to the 5th slot to help get some more ducks on the pond after Votto or Bruce hit. Both MLBDC and the simulator have Todd Frazier hitting 6th. Ryan Hanigan and his very unique skillset of having a higher OBP than SLG is put to use as a bottom of the order leadoff man and of course the best spot for the pitcher to hit is 8th.