Best Lineup - Houston Astros

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Up at the plate this time are the newest AL team, the Houston Astros. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Important reading sources: Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Tyler Greene
2. Jose Altuve
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Brett Wallace (L)
6. Justin Maxwell
7. Jason Castro (L)
8. Fernando Martinez (L) << J.D. Martinez
9. Matt Dominguez

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Carlos Pena (L)
2. Jose Altuve
3. Brett Wallace (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Justin Maxwell
6. Tyler Greene
7. Fernando Martinez (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.50

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. J.D. Martinez
2. Tyler Greene
3. Jose Altuve
4. Justin Maxwell
5. Jason Castro (L)
6. Chris Carter
7. Carlos Pena (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Brett Wallace (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.43

Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into Baseball Musings lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP with J.D. Martinez used against LHP and Fernando Martinez against RHP.

Here is the lineup they suggest.

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs RHP
1. Jose Altuve
2. Justin Maxwell
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. Brett Wallace (L)
6. Tyler Greene
7. Fernando Martinez (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.36

Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs LHP
1. Jose Altuve
2. Justin Maxwell
3. Carlos Pena (L)
4. Chris Carter
5. J.D. Martinez
6. Tyler Greene
7. Brett Wallace (L)
8. Matt Dominguez
9. Jason Castro (L)
Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.14

And just for fun, I flipped the best lineup that the simulator spits out vs RHP upside down just to see how much worse it came out. The answer was 0.82 runs per 162 games.

Skinny: A lot of info here, but a few things stick out. First off, the simulator thinks that Tyler Greene should not sniff the top portion of the lineup against RHP but with the platoon advantage batting him 2nd is Ok. Jose Altuve is properly placed 2nd or 3rd in the order. Carlos Pena should leadoff against RHP, he has the 4th highest BB% in all of MLB over the past two years, but man that batting average is a killer. The simulator agrees with MLBDC that Chris Carter should bat cleanup against RHP and he drops from 5th to 6th against LHP to avoid batting lefties back to back. Brett Wallace runs the gamut, batting 3rd against RHP and last against LHP. The simulator actually likes Justin Maxwell quite a bit as does Baseball Musings. The simulator bats him 4th and 5th while Baseball Musings bats him 2nd. Jason Castro bats (2nd leadoff) or 9th vs RHP and shoots up to 5th against LHP. He would've been 6th, but I didn't want to bat back to back lefties against a LHP. There is good agreement on batting Fernando Martinez in the bottom third of the lineup (he only faces RHP). Same with Matt Dominguez. The simulator likes J.D. Martinez leading off when he plays against LHP while Baseball Musings bats him 5th.

So in a nutshell, that is your Houston Astros lineup analysis. There doesn't seem like huge amounts of wins to be saved by batting the most efficient lineup. National League lineups in general, have more runs to squeeze out of lineup construction due to the pitcher batting and surrounding the pitcher with the proper hitters and batting the pitcher in the proper spot (8th).

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Kansas City Royals. Up at the plate this time are the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLBDepthCharts. Player projections are taken from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Starling Marte
2. Neil Walker (S)
3. Andrew McCutchen
4. Garrett Jones (L)
5. Pedro Alvarez (L)
6. Russell Martin
7. Travis Snider (L) << Gaby Sanchez vs LHP
8. Clint Barmes
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Russell Martin
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Neil Walker (S)
4. Garrett Jones (L)
5. Pedro Alvarez (L)
6. Travis Snider (L)
7. Clint Barmes
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Starling Marte
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.84

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. Russell Martin
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Garrett Jones (L)
4. Neil Walker (S)
5. Starling Marte
6. Gaby Sanchez
7. Clint Barmes
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Pedro Alvarez (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.48

Skinny: The thing that pops up right away is that the simulator likes Russell Martin and his low batting average and decent OBP at the top of the order.  The top four lineup spots are almost the same vs both RH/LH pitchers with Jones and Walker flopped at the 3rd and 4th spots.  Marte who is projected by MLBDepthCharts to leadoff finds himself batting 9th against RHP and 5th against LHP.  I am a little surprised at Marte batting 9th against RHP but there are a slew of left handed batters that bump him down, so it really comes down to batting 7th in front of the pitcher, or batting 9th where he comes in to play as a table setter (leadoff man) at the bottom of the order, kind of like Alvarez does against LHP.

And if you haven't noticed, batting the pitcher 8th and not 9th pretty much helps every single NL team.

Best Lineup - Kansas City Royals

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the New York Mets. Up at the plate this time are the Kansas City Royals. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Bob Ellis over at Kings Of Kauffman came up with his own hand-picked best Royals lineup, so I will also be comparing to his suggested lineup. In this exercise all player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Lorenzo Cain
2. Alcides Escobar
3. Alex Gordon (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Salvador Perez
7. Eric Hosmer (L)
8. Jeff Francouer
9. Chris Getz (L)

Lineup from Kings Of Kauffman (vs RHP)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Salvador Perez
4. Billy Butler
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Jeff Francouer
8. Alcides Escobar
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.705 (vs RHP)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.293 (vs LHP)

Best Lineup vs RHP (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.831

Best Lineup vs LHP  (Simulator)
1. Alex Gordon (L)
2. Eric Hosmer (L)
3. Mike Moustakas (L)
4. Billy Butler
5. Jeff Francouer
6. Lorenzo Cain
7. Alcides Escobar
8. Salvador Perez
9. Chris Getz (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.408

Skinny: A couple of things pop up quickly when looking at the lineups.  The first is that the best lineup vs RHP is the same lineup vs LHP.  The simulator does not want the Royals to change their lineup if facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher.  The MLB Depth Charts lineup is a pretty efficient one, but Kings Of Kauffman does a pretty good job on coming up with an efficient lineup.  Kings Of Kauffman is able to shave off 0.705 more wins per 162 games than the MLBDC lineup (vs RHP).  With the most efficient lineup coming in at winning an extra 0.831 vs RHP.  One thing that I kind of ignored in this exercise was worrying about stacking up too many left-handed hitting players back to back (LOOGY protection).  The Kings Of Kauffman lineup batted three lefties in a row, while the most efficient simulator lineup batted four.  MLBDC took extra care not to bat any lefties back to back.  Obviously, if I were to follow the same constraints as MLBDC did - the most efficient lineup would look pretty similar to the MLBDC lineup.  In the end not a great big difference when looking at how many wins are gained over a 162 game period, but every little bit helps.

Kings Of Kauffman and the Simulator agree on the first two batters (Gordon, Hosmer).  KOK puts catcher Salvador Perez in the third spot, while the simulator bumps him all the way down to 8th.  The simulator bats Moustakas third, while KOK bats him fifth.  Billy Butler is the choice of both for cleanup batter.  Cain bats sixth and Gets ninth in both systems, with Escobar bumped up one slot in the sim.

Best Lineup - New York Mets

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up at the plate this time are the New York Mets who have David Wright and a few warm bodies. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts. Player projection inputs come from Bill James.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Ruben Tejada
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Mike Baxter (L) << Andrew Brown is platoon partner
7. John Buck
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) << Collin Cowgill is platoon partner
9. Pitchers Spot

Best Lineup vs RHP
1. Mike Baxter (L)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. David Wright
4. Ike Davis (L)
5. Lucas Duda (L)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. John Buck
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.46

Best Lineup vs LHP
1. Collin Cowgill (S)
2. Daniel Murphy (L)
3. Ike Davis (L)
4. David Wright
5. Andrew Brown
6. John Buck
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Lucas Duda (L)
Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.71

Skinny: Using the Bill James projections, Ruben Tejada should not bat near the top of the lineup because he does not get on base nearly enough. Both Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill who are platoon players, seem to be the best fit as leadoff men (depending on the handedness of the pitcher). Batting Daniel Murphy second is a good choice and David Wright and Ike Davis batting 3rd and 4th (swapped) is the correct location in the lineup. Duda, who is best in the 5th spot against RHP, helps the team out the most as the 9th batter against left handed pitching. Andrew Brown sneaks up to the 5th spot in the lineup when he is in there against LHP.

Best Lineup - Arizona Diamondbacks

In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Arizona Diamondbacks who have made a few changes in the past couple of weeks - most notably trading Justin Upton to the Braves for Martin Prado. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

Below are the results...

Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Aaron Hill
3. Miguel Montero (L)
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Martin Prado
6. Paul Goldschmidth
7. Cody Ross
8. Cliff Pennington (S)
9. Pitchers Spot


Best lineup vs RHP

1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Miguel Montero (L)
3. Martin Prado
4. Jason Kubel (L)
5. Cody Ross
6. Aaron Hill
7. Paul Goldschmidt
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.10 wins


Best lineup vs LHP
1. Adam Eaton (L)
2. Martin Prado
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Cody Ross
5. Aaron Hill
6. Jason Kubel (L)
7. Miguel Montero (L)
8. Pitchers Spot
9. Cliff Pennington (S)

Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.62 wins


Skinny: Adam Eaton is the logical choice to bat leadoff. Martin Prado stays in the top third of the lineup against both pitchers, while Cody Ross stays in the middle. The lefties Kubel and Montero drop a few places against the lefties, while Cliff Pennington is the overwhelming pick to bat 9th behind the pitcher.