tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163Fri, 03 Oct 2014 07:35:38 +0000LineupsAngelsSimulationsSabermetrics2013 SimulationsRedsAthleticsC.J. WilsonJason VargasJoe BlantonTommy HansonAstrosDerek HollandMarinersRangersA.J. GriffinAaron HarangAnibal SanchezBravesBronson ArroyoBud NorrisCubsDiamondbacksFelix DoubrontJarrod ParkerJered WeaverJohnny CuetoMetsMiguel GonzalezOriolesPhilliesPiratesRed SoxRoyalsSimlationsTigersTommy MiloneTwinsVance WorleyYankeesThe Sober Angelshttp://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)Blogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-3149087732106912794Fri, 05 Jul 2013 23:30:00 +00002013-07-05T16:30:55.685-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsC.J. WilsonFelix DoubrontRed SoxRed Sox vs Angels - July 5th Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zm8Y2tGh7i4/UddXEtxwEgI/AAAAAAAAAd4/MT9WAf_XcwE/s1600/LAA01298.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="614" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zm8Y2tGh7i4/UddXEtxwEgI/AAAAAAAAAd4/MT9WAf_XcwE/s640/LAA01298.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/07/red-sox-vs-angels-july-5th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8622797223817202697Sat, 04 May 2013 00:36:00 +00002013-05-03T17:36:49.688-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsJason VargasMiguel GonzalezOriolesOrioles vs Angels - May 3rd Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KaCCaM5iIUc/UYRYBouif8I/AAAAAAAAATA/ZD09FNbsADE/s1600/LAA00442.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KaCCaM5iIUc/UYRYBouif8I/AAAAAAAAATA/ZD09FNbsADE/s640/LAA00442.JPG" width="626" /></a></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/05/orioles-vs-angels-may-3rd-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-6519568437311329317Sat, 27 Apr 2013 01:54:00 +00002013-04-26T18:54:48.815-07:002013 SimulationsAaron HarangAngelsC.J. WilsonMarinersAngels vs Mariners - April 26th Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-crKFZCnw2vc/UXsv3iJfYSI/AAAAAAAAARQ/M7er6GA-Yk0/s1600/LAA00347.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-crKFZCnw2vc/UXsv3iJfYSI/AAAAAAAAARQ/M7er6GA-Yk0/s640/LAA00347.JPG" width="608" /></a></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/angels-vs-mariners-april-26th.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-861943400973639232Mon, 22 Apr 2013 04:13:00 +00002013-04-21T21:13:52.598-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsDerek HollandJoe BlantonRangersRangers vs Angels - April 22nd Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IlgpmzVkMdk/UXS4zyVRd0I/AAAAAAAAAP4/5M8IKEzkC-I/s1600/LAA00290.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IlgpmzVkMdk/UXS4zyVRd0I/AAAAAAAAAP4/5M8IKEzkC-I/s640/LAA00290.JPG" width="614" /></a></div><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/rangers-vs-angels-april-22nd-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8594626644640114431Fri, 19 Apr 2013 06:48:00 +00002013-04-18T23:48:35.787-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsAnibal SanchezTigersTommy HansonTigers vs Angels - April 19th Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kAAtB1MZUA4/UXDopUtoBUI/AAAAAAAAAPA/Ic1PXxeU7lI/s1600/LAA00248.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kAAtB1MZUA4/UXDopUtoBUI/AAAAAAAAAPA/Ic1PXxeU7lI/s640/LAA00248.JPG" width="628" /></a></div><br /><br /><br />Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores<br />1. LAA 3-2<br />2. LAA 4-3<br />3. LAA 5-4<br />4. LAA 2-1<br />5. DET 3-2<br />6. DET 4-3<br />7. LAA 4-2<br />8. LAA 3-1<br />9. DET 4-2<br />10. LAA 6-5<br />11. DET 2-1<br />12. DET 5-4<br />13. LAA 5-3<br />14. DET 5-3<br />15. LAA 5-2<br />16. DET 3-1<br />17. DET 5-2<br />18. LAA 4-1<br />19. DET 4-1<br />20. DET 6-5<br /><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/tigers-vs-angels-april-19th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-7317943951118746873Wed, 17 Apr 2013 16:00:00 +00002013-04-17T09:00:55.883-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsTommy HansonTwinsVance WorleyAngels vs Twins - April 17th Simulation Results<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2YDt1Kgkcj0/UW7HKnA-GFI/AAAAAAAAAOg/k7HtuEaHjSw/s1600/LAA00220.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="626" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2YDt1Kgkcj0/UW7HKnA-GFI/AAAAAAAAAOg/k7HtuEaHjSw/s640/LAA00220.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><br /><br />Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores<br />1. MIN 3-2<br />2. MIN 4-3<br />3. MIN 2-1<br />4. LAA 3-2<br />5. LAA 4-3<br />6. LAA 2-1<br />7. MIN 5-4<br />8. LAA 4-2<br />9. LAA 3-1<br />10. MIN 4-2<br />11. LAA 5-3<br />12. MIN 3-1<br />13. LAA 5-4<br />14. LAA 5-2<br />15. LAA 4-1<br />16. MIN 6-5<br />17. MIN 5-3<br />18. MIN 4-1<br />19. LAA 6-3<br />20. LAA 2-0<br /><br />Notes about simulator:<br />It uses Zips projections as data inputs and then plays actual baseball games taking into account pretty much anything you can think of including, defense, base running, handedness advantages, park factors, pitchers tiring, leverage index for bullpen usage. The lineups come from MLBDepthCharts and since the simulations are done before the actual lineups are published there may be some slight differences between the lineup the simulation uses and the actual one. Each game is simulated 100k times and the average box scores are listed above.<br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/angels-vs-twins-april-17th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8006424016375184661Fri, 12 Apr 2013 07:53:00 +00002013-04-12T00:53:53.576-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsAstrosBud NorrisTommy HansonAstros vs Angels - April 12th Simulation Results<br />Note: I will be in attendance at this game!!!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iAQ29dDs524/UWe9VXt72MI/AAAAAAAAANg/HxiPl26nbLA/s1600/LAA00152.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iAQ29dDs524/UWe9VXt72MI/AAAAAAAAANg/HxiPl26nbLA/s640/LAA00152.JPG" width="626" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/astros-vs-angels-april-12th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-5606396816127977845Thu, 11 Apr 2013 06:34:00 +00002013-04-10T23:34:51.122-07:002013 SimulationsA.J. GriffinAngelsAthleticsJason VargasAthletics vs Angels - April 11th Simulation Results<br />Simulation Results (Screenshot)<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LJ0KPZ0Yu-w/UWZZekqvJcI/AAAAAAAAAM0/8zlS6Xengdg/s1600/LAA00137.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LJ0KPZ0Yu-w/UWZZekqvJcI/AAAAAAAAAM0/8zlS6Xengdg/s640/LAA00137.JPG" width="624" /></a></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/athletics-vs-angels-april-11th.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8551569223951460016Wed, 10 Apr 2013 16:21:00 +00002013-04-10T09:21:13.611-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsAthleticsJoe BlantonTommy MiloneAthletics vs Angels - April 10th Simulation Results<br />Box score screenshot.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uSEUGB1X-rE/UWWRZoHhd_I/AAAAAAAAAMY/4SkXA1Gpa4U/s1600/LAA00128.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="572" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uSEUGB1X-rE/UWWRZoHhd_I/AAAAAAAAAMY/4SkXA1Gpa4U/s640/LAA00128.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/athletics-vs-angels-april-10th.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8065223373717577067Tue, 09 Apr 2013 15:23:00 +00002013-04-09T08:37:10.966-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsAthleticsC.J. WilsonJarrod ParkerAthletics vs Angels - April 9th Simulation Results<br />Here is a screenshot of the results of today's simulation of the Athletics vs Angels game. Please keep in mind that the simulation was ran before the lineups were announced. The lineups should be close but not an exact match of the actual ones. This game was simulated 100K times.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFDiPJW1U1M/UWQ1SA-RSUI/AAAAAAAAALo/2zVs8ER-I7g/s1600/LAA00114.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sFDiPJW1U1M/UWQ1SA-RSUI/AAAAAAAAALo/2zVs8ER-I7g/s640/LAA00114.JPG" width="600" /></a></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/athletics-vs-angels-april-9th.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-8167582635383772868Fri, 05 Apr 2013 15:21:00 +00002013-04-05T08:21:46.234-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsDerek HollandJason VargasRangersAngels vs Rangers - April 5th Simulation Results<br /> <br />Here are the simulation results for the April 5th game between the Angels and the Rangers.<br /><br />Angels (1-2) vs Rangers (2-1)<br />Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland<br /><br />Record: 1-2 (0.333)<br />RS: 11<br />RA: 11<br />Pythag Win%: 0.500<br />Pythag Pace: 81- 81<br />Pythag Record: 1.5 - 1.5<br />Record As Favorites: 0-1<br />Record As Underdogs: 1-1<br /><br />Simulation Results Notes:<br />Angels win expectancy is 51.73%<br />Angels on average score 5.72 runs<br />Rangers on average score 5.23 runs<br />Total Runs scored on average: 10.95<br /><br />Starting Pitching Lines:<br />Jason Vargas - 5.4ip, 3.3so, 1.8bb, 6.7hits, 1.07hrs, 88pitches, 5.554fip<br />Derek Holland - 5.4ip, 5.1so, 1.9bb, 6.3hits, 1.15hrs, 90pitches, 5.097fip<br /><br />Some numbers from the Vegas odds:<br />Angels win expectancy: 47.28%<br />Over/Under: 10.0 -110o +100u<br />Notes: This looks like a high scoring game.<br /><br />Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:<br />1. Rangers 5-4<br />2. Rangers 4-3<br />3. Rangers 6-5<br />4. Rangers 3-2<br />5. Angels 5-4<br />6. Angels 4-3<br />7. Rangers 7-6<br />8. Angels 6-5<br />9. Angels 5-3<br />10. Rangers 5-3<br />11. Angels 6-4<br />12. Angels 3-2<br />13. Rangers 6-4<br />14. Rangers 4-2<br />15. Angels 4-2<br />16. Angels 6-3<br />17. Angels 7-6<br />18. Rangers 8-7<br />19. Angels 7-5<br />20. Rangers 6-3<br />.<br />.<br />100. Angels 11-2<br /><br /> http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/angels-vs-rangers-april-5th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-493954240643827069Thu, 04 Apr 2013 16:01:00 +00002013-04-04T09:01:32.350-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsBronson ArroyoJoe BlantonRedsAngels vs Reds - April 4th Simulation Results<br /><div class="widget Blog" id="Blog1"><div class="blog-posts hfeed"><!-- google_ad_section_start(name=default) --><div class="date-outer"></div><div class="date-header">Here are the simulation results for the April 4th game between the Angels and the Reds.<br /><br />Angels vs Reds<br />Joe Blanton vs Bronson Arroyo<br /><br />Simulation Results Notes:<br />Angels win expectancy: 50.56%<br />Angels on average score 4.40 runs<br />Reds on average score 4.16 runs<br />Total Runs scored on average: 8.56<br /><br />Starting Pitching Lines:<br />Joe Blanton - 6.0ip, 5.7so, 1.5bb, 6.1hits, 1.1hrs, 94pitches, 4.410fip<br />Bronson Arroyo - 6.0ip, 4.3so, 1.2bb, 6.8hits, 1.1hrs, 92pitches, 4.691fip<br /><br />Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton<br />Reds player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce<br /><br />Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.1 times)<br />Reds hitter most strikeouts: Chris Heisey (1.1 times)<br /><br />Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.366 times)<br />Reds hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.606 times)<br /><br />Some numbers from the Vegas odds:<br />Angels win expectancy: 48.31%<br />Over/Under: 8.5 o105, u-125<br /><br />Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:<br />1. Reds 4-3<br />2. Reds 3-2<br />3. Reds 5-4<br />4. Angels 3-2<br />5. Angels 4-3<br />6. Reds 2-1<br />7. Angels 4-2<br />8. Angels 5-4<br />9. Reds 6-5<br />10. Reds 4-2<br />11. Angels 5-3<br />12. Reds 5-3<br />13. Angels 3-1<br />14. Angels 5-2<br />15. Angels 2-1<br />16. Angels 4-1<br />17. Reds 3-1<br />18. Reds 5-2<br />19. Angels 6-3<br />20. Angels 6-4<br />.<br />.<br />100. Angels 11-2</div><div class="date-header"> </div></div></div>http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/angels-vs-reds-april-4th-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-9054471782873605469Mon, 01 Apr 2013 08:10:00 +00002013-04-01T01:10:02.494-07:002013 SimulationsAngelsJered WeaverJohnny CuetoRedsAngels vs Reds, Opening Day Simulation Results<br />Here are the simulation results for the opening day game between the Angels and the Reds.<br /><br />Angels vs Reds<br />Jered Weaver vs Johnny Cueto<br /><br />Simulation Results Notes:<br />Angels win expectancy: 44.32%<br />Angels on average score 3.42 runs<br />Reds on average score 3.72 runs<br />Total Runs scored on average: 7.14<br /><br />Starting Pitching Lines:<br />Jered Weaver - 6.0ip, 6.3so, 1.8bb, 6.1hits, 0.8hrs, 97pitches, 3.763fip<br />Johnny Cueto - 6.5ip, 6.3so, 1.5bb, 6.4hits, 0.6hrs, 100pitches, 3.173fip<br /><br />Angels player most likely to hit a HR: Josh Hamilton<br />Reds player most likely to hit a HR: Jay Bruce<br /><br />Angels hitter most strikeouts: Josh Hamilton (1.3 times)<br />Reds hitter most strikeouts: Ryan Ludwick (1.2 times)<br /><br />Angels hitter most walks: Chris Iannetta (0.385 times)<br />Reds hitter most walks: Joey Votto (0.656 times)<br /><br />Some numbers from the Vegas odds:<br />Angels win expectancy: 47.96%<br />Over/Under: 7.5 110o -120u<br /><br />Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:<br />1. Reds 3-2<br />2. Reds 4-3<br />3. Reds 2-1<br />4. Angels 3-2<br />5. Reds 5-4<br />6. Angels 2-1<br />7. Angels 4-3<br />8. Reds 3-1<br />9. Reds 4-2<br />10. Angels 4-2<br />11. Angels 3-1<br />12. Reds 4-1<br />13. Reds 1-0<br />14. Reds 5-3<br />15. Reds 5-2<br />16. Angels 5-4<br />17. Angels 4-1<br />18. Angels 5-3<br />19. Reds 6-5<br />20. Reds 2-0<br />.<br />.<br />98. Angels 9-0http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/04/angels-vs-reds-opening-day-simulation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-5563324250843627442Fri, 08 Mar 2013 08:19:00 +00002013-03-08T00:19:25.023-08:00LineupsSabermetricsSimulationsYankeesBest Lineup - New York Yankees<br />In my previous post, I looked at the best lineup for the Cincinatti Reds. Next up are the New York Yankees in my Best Lineup series. The Yankees have had many injuries along with a few new faces this pre-season. I will compare the lineup that <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/01/new-york-yankees-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLB Depth Charts</a> lists as their most likely lineup against what the simulator thinks is the best lineup and this will be done both against a RH and LH pitcher. In order to do this the simulator plays one game millions of times and picks the game with the highest winning percentage as the best lineup. And a last note before the results are shown. The injury to Mark Teixeira happened after I had started the Yankees portion of this exercise. I will address a lineup without Teixeira in a later post. Below are the results.<br /><br />Important Reading Source: <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by">Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book</a><br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><b>MLB Depth Charts Default Lineup</b><br />1. Ichiro Suzuki (L)<br />2. Derek Jeter<br />3. Robinson Cano (L)<br />4. Mark Teixeira (S)<br />5. Kevin Youkilis<br />6. Travis Hafner (L)<br />7. Juan Rivera<br />8. Brett Gardner (L)<br />9. Chris Stewart<br /><br /><b>Simulator's Best Lineup vs RHP</b><br />1. Brett Gardner (L)<br />2. Kevin Youkilis<br />3. Robinson Cano (L)<br />4. Mark Teixeira (S)<br />5. Ichiro Suzuki (L)<br />6. Derek Jeter<br />7. Travis Hafner (L)<br />8. Juan Rivera<br />9. Chris Stewart<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.21<br /><br /><b>Simulator's Best Lineup vs LHP</b><br />1. Ichiro Suzuki (L)<br />2. Derek Jeter<br />3. Robinson Cano (L)<br />4. Mark Teixeira (S)<br />5. Kevin Youkilis<br />6. Juan Rivera<br />7. Travis Hafner (L)<br />8. Chris Stewart<br />9. Brett Gardner (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.06<br /><br /><b>Skinny:</b><br />There is not much difference between the MLB Depth Chart lineup and what the simulator thinks is the best lineup. Against RHP the simulator thinks that Brett Gardner, not Ichiro Suzuki should bat leadoff and that Kevin Youkilis should bat 2nd with Derek Jeter dropped to 6th. The three batters that the simulator does not change lineup order for are Robinson Cano (3rd), Mark Teixeira (4th) and Travis Hafner (7th).http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/03/best-lineup-new-york-yankees.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-6561859923794471047Mon, 04 Mar 2013 03:09:00 +00002013-03-03T19:09:54.438-08:00LineupsRedsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Cincinnati Reds Part 2<br />A couple of Reds fans brought up a pretty interesting idea. Instead of using the 2013 Bill James projections and the 2013 most likely lineup, they asked me to run simulations using the actual 2012 stats as input and to use the 2012 roster to come up with the best 2012 lineup and compare it against the lineup that manager Dusty Baker used the most. Let's see how many wins per 162 games the Reds could've saved themselves had they used the most efficient lineup. In this Part 2 exercise I am only going to look at the Reds vs RHP.<br /><br /><b>Most Common 2012 Lineup</b><br />1. Zack Cozart<br />2. Drew Stubbs<br />3. Joey Votto (L)<br />4. Brandon Phillips<br />5. Jay Bruce (L)<br />6. Ryan Ludwick<br />7. Todd Frazier<br />8. Ryan Hanigan<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br /><b>Simulator Most Efficient 2012 Lineup</b><br />1. Ryan Hanigan<br />2. Joey Votto (L)<br />3. Brandon Phillips<br />4. Jay Bruce (L)<br />5. Ryan Ludwick<br />6. Todd Frazier<br />7. Drew Stubbs<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Zack Cozart<br />Wins/162 Better Than Most Common 2012 Lineup: 1.48<br /><br />A quick look back at the <a href="http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/03/best-lineup-cincinnati-reds.html">Part One post</a>, where the 2013 Bill James Projections had Zack Cozart hitting 5th - let's see how that lineup would look using the 2012 actual stats instead of those from Bill James. Keep in mind the Reds now have Shin-Soo Choo, so I just replaced him with Drew Stubbs, so it is not exactly a one to one comparison.<br /><br /><b>Bill James 2013 Most Efficient Lineup</b><br />1. Drew Stubbs << was Choo <br />2. Joey Votto <br />3. Brandon Phillips <br />4. Jay Bruce <br />5. Zack Cozart <br />6. Todd Frazier <br />7. Ryan Ludwick <br />8. Pitchers Spot <br />9. Ryan Hanigan <br /><b>Notes: </b>This lineup is 2.35 wins/162 games worse than the most efficient lineup using 2012 stats.<br /><br />So there is a big difference in picking the most efficient lineup based on what stats you use as input, the 2012 actual stats or the 2013 Bill James Projections. The projections will have some regression built in to them, where a poor 2012 season will be regressed up and a great 2012 season will be regressed back down. Another thing to try would be to use a different set of 2013 player projections and see if they differ significantly from what the Bill James projections came up with.http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/03/best-lineup-cincinnati-reds-part-2.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-5739658427110731048Sat, 02 Mar 2013 05:33:00 +00002013-03-01T21:33:04.657-08:00LineupsRedsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Cincinnati RedsIn my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Houston Astros. Up at the plate this time are the Cincinnati Reds. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/cincinnati-reds-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. Player projections are taken from Bill James.<br /><br />Important reading sources: <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by">Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book</a><br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)<br />2. Brandon Phillips<br />3. Joey Votto (L)<br />4. Ryan Ludwick<br />5. Jay Bruce (L)<br />6. Todd Frazier<br />7. Zack Cozart<br />8. Ryan Hanigan<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br /><strong>Best Simulator Lineup vs RHP</strong><br />1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)<br />2. Joey Votto (L)<br />3. Brandon Phillips<br />4. Jay Bruce (L)<br />5. Zack Cozart<br />6. Todd Frazier<br />7. Ryan Ludwick<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Ryan Hanigan<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.14<br /><br /><strong>Best Simulator Lineup vs LHP</strong><br />1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)<br />2. Jay Bruce (L)<br />3. Brandon Phillips<br />4. Joey Votto (L)<br />5. Zack Cozart<br />6. Todd Frazier<br />7. Ryan Ludwick<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Ryan Hanigan<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.75<br /><br />Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Shin-Soo+Choo&OBA0=+0.374&Slug0=+0.440&Player1=Brandon+Phillips&OBA1=+0.327&Slug1=+0.432&Player2=Joey+Votto&OBA2=+0.422&Slug2=+0.538&Player3=Ryan+Ludwick&OBA3=+0.327&Slug3=+0.449&Player4=Jay+Bruce&OBA4=+0.342&Slug4=+0.518&Player5=Todd+Frazier&OBA5=+0.325&Slug5=+0.476&Player6=Zack+Cozart&OBA6=+0.308&Slug6=+0.415&Player7=Ryan+Hanigan&OBA7=+0.367&Slug7=+0.357&Player8=Pitchers+Spot&OBA8=+0.220&Slug8=+0.300&Model=1">Baseball Musings</a> lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP.<br /><br />Here is the lineup they suggest.<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup (Baseball Musings)</strong><br />1. Joey Votto (L)<br />2. Ryan Ludwick<br />3. Brandon Phillips<br />4. Jay Bruce (L)<br />5. Shin-Soo Choo (L)<br />6. Todd Frazier<br />7. Zack Cozart<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Ryan Hanigan<br />Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs RHP): 0.70<br />Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup (vs LHP): 0.46<br /><br /><br /><strong>Skinny</strong>: First off, the simulator agrees with MLBDC that Choo should hit leadoff. Joey Votto is an incredible hitter, putting up amazing numbers in both OBP and SLG. The simulator likes him hitting 2nd against RHP with Bruce hitting cleanup then the simulator swaps positions with them against LHP. Other than that swap, the vs RHP and vs LHP lineups are the same. The simulator feels that Ryan Ludwick should not sniff the middle of the order, his power can be put to better use clearing the bases or drawing walks before the pitcher comes up to bat. Instead, the simulator likes placing Zack Cozart in to the 5th slot to help get some more ducks on the pond after Votto or Bruce hit. Both MLBDC and the simulator have Todd Frazier hitting 6th. Ryan Hanigan and his very unique skillset of having a higher OBP than SLG is put to use as a bottom of the order leadoff man and of course the best spot for the pitcher to hit is 8th.<br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/03/best-lineup-cincinnati-reds.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-1336455226707432454Mon, 25 Feb 2013 02:52:00 +00002013-02-25T08:22:13.082-08:00AstrosLineupsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Houston AstrosIn my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Up at the plate this time are the newest AL team, the Houston Astros. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/02/houston-astros-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. Player projections are taken from Bill James.<br /><br />Important reading sources: <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by">Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book</a><br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Tyler Greene<br />2. Jose Altuve<br />3. Carlos Pena (L)<br />4. Chris Carter<br />5. Brett Wallace (L)<br />6. Justin Maxwell<br />7. Jason Castro (L)<br />8. Fernando Martinez (L) << J.D. Martinez <br />9. Matt Dominguez <br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup vs RHP</strong><br />1. Carlos Pena (L)<br />2. Jose Altuve<br />3. Brett Wallace (L)<br />4. Chris Carter<br />5. Justin Maxwell<br />6. Tyler Greene<br />7. Fernando Martinez (L)<br />8. Matt Dominguez<br />9. Jason Castro (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.50<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup vs LHP</strong><br />1. J.D. Martinez<br />2. Tyler Greene<br />3. Jose Altuve<br />4. Justin Maxwell<br />5. Jason Castro (L)<br />6. Chris Carter<br />7. Carlos Pena (L)<br />8. Matt Dominguez<br />9. Brett Wallace (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.43<br /><br />Now something new. I also plugged in the OBP and SLG into <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Fernando+Martinez&OBA0=.318&Slug0=.406&Player1=Tyler+Greene&OBA1=+0.314&Slug1=+0.413&Player2=Jose+Altuve&OBA2=+0.347&Slug2=+0.417&Player3=Justin+Maxwell&OBA3=+0.331&Slug3=+0.465&Player4=Brett+Wallace&OBA4=+0.325&Slug4=+0.421&Player5=Chris+Carter&OBA5=+0.333&Slug5=+0.471&Player6=Jason+Castro&OBA6=+0.339&Slug6=+0.382&Player7=Matt+Dominguez&OBA7=+0.293&Slug7=+0.385&Player8=Carlos+Pena&OBA8=+0.340&Slug8=+0.408&Model=0">Baseball Musings</a> lineup generator and plugged the lineup they projected as the best into the simulator. The Baseball Musings lineup generator does not take into account batter handedness, so I used their lineup against both RHP and LHP with J.D. Martinez used against LHP and Fernando Martinez against RHP.<br /><br />Here is the lineup they suggest.<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs RHP</strong><br />1. Jose Altuve<br />2. Justin Maxwell<br />3. Carlos Pena (L)<br />4. Chris Carter<br />5. Brett Wallace (L)<br />6. Tyler Greene<br />7. Fernando Martinez (L)<br />8. Matt Dominguez<br />9. Jason Castro (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.36<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup (Baseball Musings) vs LHP</strong><br />1. Jose Altuve<br />2. Justin Maxwell<br />3. Carlos Pena (L)<br />4. Chris Carter<br />5. J.D. Martinez<br />6. Tyler Greene<br />7. Brett Wallace (L)<br />8. Matt Dominguez<br />9. Jason Castro (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Worse Than Sim Lineup: 0.14<br /><br />And just for fun, I flipped the best lineup that the simulator spits out vs RHP upside down just to see how much worse it came out. The answer was 0.82 runs per 162 games.<br /><br /><strong>Skinny</strong>: A lot of info here, but a few things stick out. First off, the simulator thinks that Tyler Greene should not sniff the top portion of the lineup against RHP but with the platoon advantage batting him 2nd is Ok. Jose Altuve is properly placed 2nd or 3rd in the order. Carlos Pena should leadoff against RHP, he has the 4th highest BB% in all of MLB over the past two years, but man that batting average is a killer. The simulator agrees with MLBDC that Chris Carter should bat cleanup against RHP and he drops from 5th to 6th against LHP to avoid batting lefties back to back. Brett Wallace runs the gamut, batting 3rd against RHP and last against LHP. The simulator actually likes Justin Maxwell quite a bit as does Baseball Musings. The simulator bats him 4th and 5th while Baseball Musings bats him 2nd. Jason Castro bats (2nd leadoff) or 9th vs RHP and shoots up to 5th against LHP. He would've been 6th, but I didn't want to bat back to back lefties against a LHP. There is good agreement on batting Fernando Martinez in the bottom third of the lineup (he only faces RHP). Same with Matt Dominguez. The simulator likes J.D. Martinez leading off when he plays against LHP while Baseball Musings bats him 5th.<br /><br />So in a nutshell, that is your Houston Astros lineup analysis. There doesn't seem like huge amounts of wins to be saved by batting the most efficient lineup. National League lineups in general, have more runs to squeeze out of lineup construction due to the pitcher batting and surrounding the pitcher with the proper hitters and batting the pitcher in the proper spot (8th).http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/02/best-lineup-houston-astros.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-7140887316271521877Fri, 22 Feb 2013 03:48:00 +00002013-02-21T19:48:56.791-08:00LineupsPiratesSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Pittsburgh PiratesIn my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Kansas City Royals. Up at the plate this time are the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/pittsburgh-pirates-2012-13-offseason.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. Player projections are taken from Bill James.<br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Starling Marte<br />2. Neil Walker (S)<br />3. Andrew McCutchen<br />4. Garrett Jones (L)<br />5. Pedro Alvarez (L)<br />6. Russell Martin<br />7. Travis Snider (L) << Gaby Sanchez vs LHP<br />8. Clint Barmes<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup vs RHP</strong><br />1. Russell Martin<br />2. Andrew McCutchen<br />3. Neil Walker (S)<br />4. Garrett Jones (L)<br />5. Pedro Alvarez (L)<br />6. Travis Snider (L)<br />7. Clint Barmes<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Starling Marte<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.84<br /><br /><strong>Best Lineup vs LHP</strong><br />1. Russell Martin<br />2. Andrew McCutchen<br />3. Garrett Jones (L)<br />4. Neil Walker (S)<br />5. Starling Marte<br />6. Gaby Sanchez<br />7. Clint Barmes<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Pedro Alvarez (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.48<br /><br /><strong>Skinny</strong>: The thing that pops up right away is that the simulator likes Russell Martin and his low batting average and decent OBP at the top of the order. The top four lineup spots are almost the same vs both RH/LH pitchers with Jones and Walker flopped at the 3rd and 4th spots. Marte who is projected by MLBDepthCharts to leadoff finds himself batting 9th against RHP and 5th against LHP. I am a little surprised at Marte batting 9th against RHP but there are a slew of left handed batters that bump him down, so it really comes down to batting 7th in front of the pitcher, or batting 9th where he comes in to play as a table setter (leadoff man) at the bottom of the order, kind of like Alvarez does against LHP.<br /><br />And if you haven't noticed, batting the pitcher 8th and not 9th pretty much helps every single NL team.<br /><br /><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/02/best-lineup-pittsburgh-pirates.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-3221543385363375021Sun, 10 Feb 2013 06:19:00 +00002013-02-09T22:34:28.188-08:00LineupsRoyalsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Kansas City Royals<br />In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the New York Mets. Up at the plate this time are the Kansas City Royals. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/kansas-city-royals-2012-13-offseason.html">MLB Depth Charts</a>. Bob Ellis over at <a href="http://kingsofkauffman.com/2013/02/07/the-lineup-out-of-order/">Kings Of Kauffman</a> came up with his own hand-picked best Royals lineup, so I will also be comparing to his suggested lineup. In this exercise all player projection inputs come from Bill James.<br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Lorenzo Cain<br />2. Alcides Escobar<br />3. Alex Gordon (L)<br />4. Billy Butler<br />5. Mike Moustakas (L)<br />6. Salvador Perez<br />7. Eric Hosmer (L)<br />8. Jeff Francouer<br />9. Chris Getz (L)<br /><br /><strong>Lineup from Kings Of Kauffman (vs RHP)</strong><br />1. Alex Gordon (L)<br />2. Eric Hosmer (L)<br />3. Salvador Perez<br />4. Billy Butler<br />5. Mike Moustakas (L)<br />6. Lorenzo Cain<br />7. Jeff Francouer<br />8. Alcides Escobar<br />9. Chris Getz (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.705 (vs RHP)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.293 (vs LHP)<br /><b></b><br /><b>Best Lineup vs RHP (Simulator)</b><br />1. Alex Gordon (L)<br />2. Eric Hosmer (L)<br />3. Mike Moustakas (L)<br />4. Billy Butler<br />5. Jeff Francouer<br />6. Lorenzo Cain<br />7. Alcides Escobar<br />8. Salvador Perez<br />9. Chris Getz (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.831<br /><br /><b>Best Lineup vs LHP (Simulator)</b><br />1. Alex Gordon (L)<br />2. Eric Hosmer (L)<br />3. Mike Moustakas (L)<br />4. Billy Butler<br />5. Jeff Francouer<br />6. Lorenzo Cain<br />7. Alcides Escobar<br />8. Salvador Perez<br />9. Chris Getz (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.408<br /><br /><b>Skinny:</b> A couple of things pop up quickly when looking at the lineups. The first is that the best lineup vs RHP is the same lineup vs LHP. The simulator does not want the Royals to change their lineup if facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher. The MLB Depth Charts lineup is a pretty efficient one, but Kings Of Kauffman does a pretty good job on coming up with an efficient lineup. Kings Of Kauffman is able to shave off 0.705 more wins per 162 games than the MLBDC lineup (vs RHP). With the most efficient lineup coming in at winning an extra 0.831 vs RHP. One thing that I kind of ignored in this exercise was worrying about stacking up too many left-handed hitting players back to back (LOOGY protection). The Kings Of Kauffman lineup batted three lefties in a row, while the most efficient simulator lineup batted four. MLBDC took extra care not to bat any lefties back to back. Obviously, if I were to follow the same constraints as MLBDC did - the most efficient lineup would look pretty similar to the MLBDC lineup. In the end not a great big difference when looking at how many wins are gained over a 162 game period, but every little bit helps.<br /><br />Kings Of Kauffman and the Simulator agree on the first two batters (Gordon, Hosmer). KOK puts catcher Salvador Perez in the third spot, while the simulator bumps him all the way down to 8th. The simulator bats Moustakas third, while KOK bats him fifth. Billy Butler is the choice of both for cleanup batter. Cain bats sixth and Gets ninth in both systems, with Escobar bumped up one slot in the sim.<br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/02/best-lineup-kansas-city-royals.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-819541645615530002Tue, 05 Feb 2013 07:12:00 +00002013-02-04T23:37:46.553-08:00LineupsMetsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - New York Mets<br />In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up at the plate this time are the New York Mets who have David Wright and a few warm bodies. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/new-york-mets-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLB Depth Charts</a>. Player projection inputs come from Bill James.<br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Ruben Tejada<br />2. Daniel Murphy (L)<br />3. David Wright<br />4. Ike Davis (L)<br />5. Lucas Duda (L)<br />6. Mike Baxter (L) << Andrew Brown is platoon partner <br />7. John Buck <br />8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) << Collin Cowgill is platoon partner <br />9. Pitchers Spot <b></b><br /><b></b><br /><b>Best Lineup vs RHP</b><br />1. Mike Baxter (L)<br />2. Daniel Murphy (L)<br />3. David Wright<br />4. Ike Davis (L)<br />5. Lucas Duda (L)<br />6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis<br />7. Ruben Tejada<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. John Buck<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.46<br /><br /><b> Best Lineup vs LHP</b><br />1. Collin Cowgill (S)<br />2. Daniel Murphy (L)<br />3. Ike Davis (L)<br />4. David Wright<br />5. Andrew Brown<br />6. John Buck<br />7. Ruben Tejada<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Lucas Duda (L)<br />Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 2.71<br /><br /><b>Skinny:</b> Using the Bill James projections, Ruben Tejada should not bat near the top of the lineup because he does not get on base nearly enough. Both Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill who are platoon players, seem to be the best fit as leadoff men (depending on the handedness of the pitcher). Batting Daniel Murphy second is a good choice and David Wright and Ike Davis batting 3rd and 4th (swapped) is the correct location in the lineup. Duda, who is best in the 5th spot against RHP, helps the team out the most as the 9th batter against left handed pitching. Andrew Brown sneaks up to the 5th spot in the lineup when he is in there against LHP.http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/02/best-lineup-new-york-mets.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-2702039882171536705Sat, 02 Feb 2013 23:55:00 +00002013-02-02T15:55:52.930-08:00DiamondbacksLineupsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Arizona DiamondbacksIn my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Arizona Diamondbacks who have made a few changes in the past couple of weeks - most notably trading Justin Upton to the Braves for Martin Prado. In this exercise I will use my simulator to play actual baseball games, in fact over 2 million games per lineup to find out which lineup is the most productive vs both a RHP and a LHP. Each lineup is compared in wins per 162 games against the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/arizona-diamondbacks-2012-13-offseason.html">MLB Depth Charts</a>.<br /><br />Below are the results...<br /><br />Default lineup from MLB Depth Charts.<br /><br />1. Adam Eaton (L)<br />2. Aaron Hill<br />3. Miguel Montero (L)<br />4. Jason Kubel (L)<br />5. Martin Prado<br />6. Paul Goldschmidth<br />7. Cody Ross<br />8. Cliff Pennington (S)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br /><br />Best lineup vs RHP<br /><br />1. Adam Eaton (L)<br />2. Miguel Montero (L)<br />3. Martin Prado<br />4. Jason Kubel (L)<br />5. Cody Ross<br />6. Aaron Hill<br />7. Paul Goldschmidt<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Cliff Pennington (S)<br /><br />Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.10 wins<br /><br /><br />Best lineup vs LHP<br />1. Adam Eaton (L)<br />2. Martin Prado<br />3. Paul Goldschmidt<br />4. Cody Ross<br />5. Aaron Hill<br />6. Jason Kubel (L)<br />7. Miguel Montero (L)<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Cliff Pennington (S)<br /><br />Wins/162 Games Over Default Lineup: 1.62 wins<br /><br /><br />Skinny: Adam Eaton is the logical choice to bat leadoff. Martin Prado stays in the top third of the lineup against both pitchers, while Cody Ross stays in the middle. The lefties Kubel and Montero drop a few places against the lefties, while Cliff Pennington is the overwhelming pick to bat 9th behind the pitcher.<br /><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/02/best-lineup-arizona-diamondbacks.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-6114524533376704922Thu, 31 Jan 2013 05:26:00 +00002013-01-30T21:26:03.208-08:00CubsLineupsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup vs RHP - Chicago CubsIn my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Atlanta Braves vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Chicago Cubs who could use all the extra squeezing of runs out of this lineup. I am doing things a little differently for the Cubs, not because they are special but because as this series evolves I am finding different and better ways to provide data. I am first looking at how the Cubs should stack their lineup against only RHP. I will break the results down in to different segments, where each segment has a different set of specs on how the lineup is constructed. For example, the Cubs have four left handed and four right handed hitters. In order to protect their lineup from the LOOGY, I am going to come up with a best lineup where the left handed batters hit 2-4-6-8 and 1-3-5-7. I will also submit a best lineup that has one set of back to back left handed hitters max. These three constructions will also have the pitcher batting 9th. And finally, I will have the simulator determine the best overall lineup with no limitations to how the lineup is constructed. You may see four lefties hitting together and maybe the pitcher batting 8th. In the end I will compare how these lineups do versus the default lineup from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/09/chicago-cubs-2012-13-offseason-team-page.html">MLB Depth Charts</a>.<br /><br />Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/09/chicago-cubs-2012-13-offseason-team-page.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Cubs lineup. Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br />Results will be measured by wins per 162 games better/worse than the default lineup. A positive number means that the lineup is better than the default lineup.<br /><br />First a look at the default lineup from<strong> <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/09/chicago-cubs-2012-13-offseason-team-page.html">MLBDepthCharts</a></strong><br /><br />1. David DeJesus (L)<br />2. Nate Schierholtz (L)<br />3. Anthony Rizzo (L)<br />4. Alfonso Soriano (R)<br />5. Starlin Castro (R)<br />6. Ian Stewart (L)<br />7. Welington Castillo (R)<br />8. Darwin Barney (R)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br />Measure: 0.00<br /><br /><br /><b>2-4-6-8</b> - And here is the best lineup batting lefties in the 2,4,6, and 8 spot.<br /><br />1. Starlin Castro (R)<br />2. David DeJesus (L)<br />3. Darwin Barney (R)<br />4. Anthony Rizzo (L)<br />5. Alfonso Soriano (R)<br />6. Ian Stewart (L)<br />7. Welington Castillo (R)<br />8. Nate Schierholtz (L)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br />Measure: -1.19<br /><br /><br /><b>1-3-5-7</b> - And the same, except for lefties hitting in the 1,3,5 and 7 spots.<br /><br />1. David DeJesus (L)<br />2. Darwin Barney (R)<br />3. Anthony Rizzo (L)<br />4. Starlin Castro (R)<br />5. Nate Schierholtz (L)<br />6. Alfonso Soriano (R)<br />7. Ian Stewart (L)<br />8. Welington Castillo (R)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br />Measure: +0.12<br /><br /><br /><b>Semi-LOOGY Proof Lineup</b> - No more than one set of back to back lefties.<br /><br />1. David DeJesus (L)<br />2. Darwin Barney (R)<br />3. Anthony Rizzo (L)<br />4. Starlin Castro (R)<br />5. Nate Schierholtz (L)<br />6. Ian Stewart (L)<br />7. Alfonso Soriano (R)<br />8. Welington Castillo (R)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br />Measure: +0.22<br /><br /><b>Back Of The Napkin: </b>Using the criteria of the pitcher having to bat 9th, the default lineup is not too bad. But it does bat three lefties in a row (1,2,3) at the top of the order making it vulnerable to a LOOGY. The lineup batting lefties 2-4-6-8 doesn't do too well. My guess is because it has Castro batting leadoff and Barney third. And yes, the simulator liked this lineup more than the lineup where you'd flip Barney to leadoff and Castro to third. The 1-3-5-7 lineup does pretty good as it improves upon the default lineup and doesn't have any lefties hitting back to back. The Semi-LOOGY lineup adds another tenth of a win (per 162 games), which is obviously not worth the bother, to the 1-3-5-7 lineup and the only difference between the two is the position of Soriano and Stewart in the 6th and 7th spots.<br /><br />Now let's through all lineup construction limitations out the window and let the simulator come up with what lineup it feels is the best.<br /><br />1. David DeJesus (L)<br />2. Starlin Castro (R)<br />3. Anthony Rizzo (L)<br />4. Nate Schierholtz (L)<br />5. Ian Stewart (L)<br />6. Alfonso Soriano (R)<br />7. Welington Castillo (R)<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Darwin Barney (R)<br />Measure: +0.34<br /><br /><b>Skinny: </b>And there you are. The Cubs most efficient lineup when facing a RHP. This is prety much the same lineup as the Semi-LOOGY one, with the only difference being that Darwin Barney is dropped from the two hole to last and everyone behind Barney bumped up one spot. This just goes to show that pretty much every NL team has something to gain (some more than others) by batting the pitcher 8th - and here you have just that.<br /><br />http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/01/best-lineup-vs-rhp-chicago-cubs.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-585119464155037656Sat, 26 Jan 2013 20:10:00 +00002013-01-26T22:18:28.486-08:00BravesLineupsSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Atlanta Braves<br />In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Atlanta Braves who sport the Upton brothers. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/atlanta-braves-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. Each lineup is ran against a baselined opponent who is the home team, so all things are kept constant except for the shuffling around of the Braves lineup. Each game is simulated 2 million times and the best lineup is determined by how many of those 2 million games are won. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br />First a look at the default lineup from<strong> <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/atlanta-braves-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a></strong><br /><br />1. Andrelton Simmons (R)<br />2. Jason Heyward (L)<br />3. Justin Upton (R)<br />4. Freddie Freeman (L)<br />5. B.J. Upton (R)<br />6. Dan Uggla (R)<br />7. Juan Francisco (L) vs RHP<br />8. Gerald Laird (R)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br />Note: Chris Johnson (R) platoons with Juan Francisco.<br /><br />Now, what did the simulator spit out as the lineup that could score the most runs and win the most games?<br /><br /><strong>vs RHP</strong><br /><br />1. Justin Upton<br />2. Andrelton Simmons<br />3. Freddie Freeman<br />4. Jason Heyward<br />5. B.J. Upton<br />6. Juan Francisco<br />7. Dan Uggla<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Gerald Laird<br /><br />The lineup (vs RHP) that the simulator found to be the most efficient lineup wins 1.88 more games (per 162 games) than the default lineup. In the table below, I take a look at how as we slowly move the default lineup around to where it becomes the most efficient lineup, we see where those 1.88 wins come from.<br /><br /><table border="1"><tbody><tr><td align="center"><b>1st</b><td align="center"><b>2nd</b><td align="center"><b>3rd</b><td align="center"><b>4th</b><td align="center"><b>5th</b><td align="center"><b>6th</b><td align="center"><b>7th</b><td align="center"><b>8th</b><td align="center"><b>9th</b><td align="center"><b>Wins Behind</b><tr><td>Simmons <td>Heyward <td>J.Upton <td>Freeman <td>B.Upton <td>Uggla <td>Francisco <td>Laird <td>Pitcher <td align="center">1.88 <tr><td>Simmons <td>Heyward <td>J.Upton <td>Freeman <td>B.Upton <td>Uggla <td>Francisco <td>Pitcher <td>Laird <td align="center">2.96 <tr><td>Simmons <td>Heyward <td>J.Upton <td>Freeman <td>B.Upton <td>Francisco <td>Uggla <td>Pitcher <td>Laird <td align="center">0.68 <tr><td>J.Upton <td>Simmons <td>Heyward <td>Freeman <td>B.Upton <td>Francisco <td>Uggla <td>Pitcher <td>Laird <td align="center">0.05 <tr><td>J.Upton <td>Simmons <td>Freeman <td>Heyward <td>B.Upton <td>Francisco <td>Uggla <td>Pitcher <td>Gerald Laird <td align="center">0.00 </td></table><br /><strong>Back of the napkin analysis</strong>: As with all the NL teams the simulator thinks the Braves should bat their pitcher 8th. There is a huge dropoff batting the pitcher 8th with the default lineup, so I did run a simulation with the pitcher batting 9th in the most efficient lineup and it ended up 1.24 runs worse than the most efficient lineup. The pitcher batting 8th works because of who is hitting at the top of the lineup when it gets turned over. The simulator really likes Juston Upton and his very OBP batting leadoff. Simmons has a decent OBP too, thus the nod for him to bat second. The simulator is not too crazy about batting Heyward 2nd and prefers him to bat cleanup, right behind Freeman. But the default lineup and simulator agree on which players should bat in the top five and the bottom five of the lineup, just not on the order. <br /><br />Now let's take a look at the best lineup against a LHP... <br /><br />and as it turns out the most efficient lineup against a LHP is the same as the one against a RHP. This is the first time I've seen this. The only difference of course being Chris Johnson playing in the place of Juan Francisco. So it looks like... <br /><br />1. Justin Upton<br />2. Andrelton Simmons<br />3. Freddie Freeman<br />4. Jason Heyward<br />5. B.J. Upton<br />6. Chris Johnson<br />7. Dan Uggla<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Gerald Laird<br /><br />The difference between the default and most efficient lineup vs LHP is 1.65 wins per 162 games. <br /><br />Using Brian McCann, who may start the season on the DL at catcher instead of Gerald Laird provides the following most efficient lineup.<br /><br />vs RHP<br />1. Justin Upton<br />2. Andrelton Simmons<br />3. Freddie Freeman<br />4. Jason Heyward<br />5. Brian McCann<br />6. Juan Francisco<br />7. Dan Uggla<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. B.J. Upton<br /><br />So we see the big change in going from Laird to McCann is that McCann slots in to the five spot where B.J. Upton use to be and B.J. Upton drops to the 9th spot, formerly held by Laird.http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/01/best-lineup-atlanta-braves.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-6825366283224772866Thu, 24 Jan 2013 04:48:00 +00002013-01-23T20:49:50.329-08:00LineupsPhilliesSabermetricsSimulationsBest Lineup - Philadelphia Phillies<br />In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Seattle Mariners vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Philadelphia Phillies. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/philadelphia-phillies-2012-13-offseason.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. What you will see with the Phillies are some pretty big differences between the lineup that the Phillies are projected to use and the one that the simulator thinks is the most efficient. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br />First a look at the default lineup from<strong> <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/philadelphia-phillies-2012-13-offseason.html">MLBDepthCharts</a></strong><br /><br />1. Jimmy Rollins (S)<br />2. Ben Revere (L)<br />3. Chase Utley (L)<br />4. Ryan Howard (L)<br />5. Michael Young (R)<br />6. Delmon Young (R)<br />7. Dominic Brown (L) vs RHP<br />8. Erik Kratz (R)<br />9. Pitchers Spot<br /><br />Note: John Mayberry (R) platoons with Dominic Brown.<br /><br />Now, what did the simulator spit out as the lineup that could score the most runs and win the most games?<br /><br /><strong>vs RHP</strong><br /><br />1. Michael Young<br />2. Jimmy Rollins<br />3. Chase Utley<br />4. Ryan Howard<br />5. Dominic Brown<br />6. Erik Kratz<br />7. Delmon Young<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Ben Revere<br /><br /><strong>now vs LHP</strong><br /><br />1. Michael Young<br />2. Jimmy Rollins<br />3. Chase Utley<br />4. John Mayberry<br />5. Erik Kratz<br />6. Delmon Young<br />7. Ryan Howard<br />8. Pitchers Spot<br />9. Ben Revere<br /><br /><strong>Back of the napkin analysis</strong>: As with all the NL teams the simulator thinks the Phillies should bat their pitcher 8th. The next thing that sticks out is that Ben Revere should by no means be sniffing the top of the lineup. The simulator has him suited as the Phillies best 9 hole hitter. As a 9 hole hitter Revere acts as a leadoff hitter who comes to the plate less times. This is a perfect way to leverage his speed, mediocre OBP and terrible SLG. Michael Young is best suited to leadoff for the Phillies and is the player the Phillies should give the most at bats to. The Young-Rollins-Utley trio should bat 1-2-3 vs both RHP and LHP. The simulator drops Ryan Howard from cleanup to 7th against LHP with John Mayberry, a platoon outfielder getting the cleanup spot against LHP. Erik Kratz bats a respectable 5th against LHP and drops one slot to 6th vs RHP - with Delmon Young hitting one slot below Kratz in both lineups.<br /><br /><strong>Notes of interest</strong>: Of all the lineups I've ran through the simulator to find the most efficient lineup so far, the Phillies lineup has the biggest difference in win percentage between the default lineup and the simulator picked lineup. Against RHP using the simulator lineup over the default lineup garners the Phillies an extra 5.59 wins per 162 games. Against the LHP it garners 5.31 more wins per 162 games.http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/01/best-lineup-philadelphia-phillies.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5473812565601919163.post-2884580891067722241Fri, 18 Jan 2013 17:00:00 +00002013-01-18T09:18:58.140-08:00LineupsMarinersSimulationsBest Lineup - Seattle Mariners<br />In my previous post I used my baseball simulator to look at the best lineup for the Anaheim Angels vs both a LH/RH pitcher. Up at the plate this time are the Seattle Mariners. Keep in mind that the input projections I am using are from Bill James and the input projections go a long ways in determining which lineup is the best. The starting nine players are determined by taking the starting lineup projections from <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/seattle-mariners-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a>. What you will see with the Mariners are some typical differences in lineups based on the handedness of the starting pitcher. Let's take a look at the results and then analyze a little bit what is going on.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br />First a look at the default lineup from<strong> <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/seattle-mariners-2012-13-offseason-team.html">MLBDepthCharts</a></strong><br /><br />1. Dustin Ackley (L)<br />2. Franklin Gutierrez (R)<br />3. Kyle Seager (L)<br />4. Michael Morse (R)<br />5. Kendrys Morales (S)<br />6. Jesus Montero (R)<br />7. Raul Ibanez (L) vs RHP<br />8. Michael Saunders (L)<br />9. Brendan Ryan (R)<br /><br />Note: Jason Bay (R) platoons with Raul Ibanez.<br /><br />Now, what did the simulator spit out as the lineup that could score the most runs and win the most games?<br /><br /><strong>vs RHP</strong><br /><br />1. Dustin Ackley<br />2. Kyle Seager<br />3. Kendrys Morales<br />4. Michael Morse<br />5. Jesus Montero<br />6. Raul Ibanez<br />7. Franklin Gutierrez<br />8. Michael Saunders<br />9. Brendan Ryan<br /><br /><strong>now vs LHP</strong><br /><br />1. Jason Bay<br />2. Kyle Seager<br />3. Kendrys Morales<br />4. Michael Morse<br />5. Jesus Montero<br />6. Franklin Gutierrez<br />7. Michael Saunders<br />8. Brendan Ryan<br />9. Dustin Ackley<br /><br /><strong>Back of the napkin analysis</strong>: Franklin Gutierrez should not hit at the top of the lineup. He does not have the on base skills to be hitting there, nor does he have the power. The weak bottom half of the lineup does push him up to a respectable 6th or 7th though. Dustin Ackley, who the simulator thinks should be leading off against RHP, gets dropped to 9th against the southpaw pitchers. With Jason Bay in the lineup against LHP, he gets the nod to hit first - bumping Ackley down. Of your weaker hitters, it is usually best to put your best OBP guy 9th to get men on base for the better hitters who are coming up. The two thru five hitters are the same in these two lineups - with Seager hitting in the two hole ahead of Morales, Morse and Montero.<br /><br /><strong>Notes of interest</strong>: Before the trade that sent John Jaso packing and brought in Michael Morse, the simulator had Jaso-Ackley hitting 1/2 against RHP and Smoak-Bay hitting 1/2 against LHP.http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2013/01/best-lineup-seattle-mariners.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Xeifrank)0